India Expects Big Increase in Wheat Exports Amid Russia–Ukraine Crisis

A farmer harvests a wheat crop at Attari village near the India–Pakistan Wagah border, about 35 kilometers from Amritsar on April 22, 2021. (Narinder Nanu/AFP via Getty Images)

India is set to export a record 7 million metric tons of wheat this year as global prices rise against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a top Indian government official said on March 5.

“Indian wheat exports have picked up,” said Sudhanshu Pandey, a senior civil servant at the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food, and Public Distribution. “By the end of February, we had already exported 6.6 million tons of wheat. Still, one month is left.”

Pandey said the Russia–Ukraine crisis has offered Indian exporters an “opportunity,” as the harvest of other global wheat suppliers matures in August and September. The resulting spike has wheat prices hovering at about 24,000 rupees ($312) to 25,000 rupees ($325) per metric ton, according to The Times of India.

Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter, accounting for almost 18 percent of global exports. Numerous governments and corporations have sanctioned Russia in order to pressure the country to halt its aggression against Ukraine.

Russia and Ukraine together account for 30 percent of the world’s wheat exports. Benchmark wheat prices in Chicago have surged by more than 40 percent this week on concern of supply disruptions because of sanctions on Russia and the war in Ukraine.

India is the world’s second-largest wheat producer.

In the 2012–13 fiscal year, India shipped a record of 6.5 million metric tons of wheat. Traders last week projected an increase in India’s wheat exports as buyers sought alternatives to Black Sea shipments.

An unnamed government official told The Times of India that private players are likely to buy directly from Indian farmers in large numbers during the harvesting season this month, particularly from Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, where the “best quality of wheat is produced.”

“This will also have an overall impact on the total procurement target and if the current condition continues, we may end up procuring around [35 million] to [36 million] tons during the next crop season, against the target of [44 million] tons,” the official said.

Wheat to Afghanistan

Pandey further noted that the Indian government will send 8,000 metric tons of wheat to Afghanistan in March to aid vulnerable Afghans suffering from poverty and hunger after the Taliban seized power in August 2021.

In total, India plans to send 50,000 tons of wheat to Afghanistan on an infrequently used land route through Pakistan, with 2,000 tons already being sent in February.

Since the United States froze Afghanistan’s dollar-denominated assets, the Taliban has been paying thousands of workers in wheat as the country’s financial crisis worsens.

Earlier in 2022, the Taliban stated that government employees would be paid with wheat supplied to Afghanistan by foreign countries as the country runs out of cash to pay their salaries. They noted that all 40,000 Afghan laborers would receive 10 kilograms (22 pounds) of wheat each day for working five hours every day.

Reuters contributed to this report.