When discussing the U.S.–China trade dispute, most reports or commentaries focus their attention on whether there would be a war or a deal, analyzing whether the Chinese communist regime would choose to launch counterattacks or surrender to the United States.
All these analyses are inaccurate, as they fail to address the core issue. What is certain is that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) can neither fight nor make peace with the United States. That is, it can neither counterattack nor surrender.
There is only one choice left for the CCP—to deceive. There is simply no other option for the CCP.
Presently, exports and foreign investments are the only reason why communist China can sustain its economic growth. China’s huge trade surplus with the United States makes up the bulk of China’s total trade surplus. Therefore, no matter what, the Chinese regime wouldn’t agree to reduce its trade surplus with the United States, nor can China afford to reduce its trade volume with the United States. The CCP must maintain a trade surplus with the United States while ensuring its total trade with the United States doesn’t suffer a significant drop.
The trade relationship between China and the United States is not as simple as the two countries’ trade; it is also a barometer for China’s trade relations with other countries. If the U.S.–China trade relationship experiences any significant changes, China’s trade with other countries will be severely affected.
In short, the CCP can’t afford to, and will not dare to, have a trade war in a real sense with the United States.
However, the CCP can’t make peace with the United States either, as it won’t be able to meet all the requirements and conditions the United States has laid out during trade negotiations.
That is because, first of all, the CCP relies on China’s state-owned firms as its economic foundation. If one day these state-owned companies no longer receive government subsidies that allow them to manufacture at low prices, they will lose their competitive advantage in foreign trade. This will inevitably result in the collapse of a large number of state-owned enterprises and a hike in unemployment, which would be an unbearable situation for the CCP.
Secondly, bad debt is a widespread problem in the CCP’s financial system. If China’s financial sector is fully opened up to foreign financial firms, it would collapse immediately.
Thirdly, for a large number of China’s private firms, their core business is making fake products or products from stolen intellectual property. They rely on copyright infringement, such as the many knockoffs of Nike, Adidas, and other world-famous brands. If the CCP promises the United States to stop theft, a large number of private firms would go bankrupt, leading to unemployment.
The key feature of the CCP’s rule is deception and lies. The only way to maintain deception is to block the free flow of information, such as the internet. If the CCP promises the United States that it will get rid of trade barriers, it would likely be compelled to remove the Great Firewall, and free information would flow into China. The Chinese people would then be able to see the truth. Consequently, the CCP would no longer be able to maintain its lies, nor maintain its rule in China.
Therefore, the CCP can’t meet the conditions proposed by the United States. That means the CCP cannot reconcile with the United States and can’t surrender, even if it wishes to.
Why is that so?
If the CCP surrenders, all Chinese people deceived by the CCP will find out that the Chinese regime is, in fact, a paper tiger. Then, all the CCP’s lies will be revealed.
In addition, the CCP’s internal political struggle has reached the level of life and death. One faction, those loyal to former Party leader Jiang Zemin, can’t wait to find an excuse to bring down the other faction, the current leadership under Xi Jinping. If the faction currently in power gives in to U.S. demands, it will inevitably give the other faction an adequate excuse to rebel and launch a deadly attack.
Therefore, the CCP can’t fight with the United States, nor can it surrender to the United States. The only thing left for the CCP to do is to deceive, as there is no other way to resolve the current dilemma.
Internally, the CCP lies to the Chinese people that it will fight with the United States to the end; externally, the CCP lies to the United States that it will try to negotiate and reconcile differences to meet certain U.S. demands.