IN-DEPTH: Why Vivek Ramaswamy Needs New Hampshire

Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy speaks to the press outside the Wilkie D. Ferguson Jr. United States Courthouse in Miami, Fla., on June 13, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

Vivek Ramaswamy speaks forcefully and specifically about what he believes he can do. Yet, even coming from a prophet of optimism, one Vivek-y pledge at a libertarian event in northern New Hampshire stands out.

“If I win the New Hampshire Republican primary, I will be your next president,” the 2024 hopeful told a liberty-minded audience at the Porcupine Freedom Festival, or PorcFest, on June 24.

Mr. Ramaswamy’s high-IQ swagger is grounded in something very much like reality.

The Granite State’s primary is a consistent, albeit imperfect, bellwether for the two major parties’ choices at their respective conventions. When it doesn’t choose nominees, it often selects populist outsiders; think Bernie Sanders in recent Democratic primaries or, in the 1996 Republican primary, Pat Buchanan.

Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) arrives to speak at a Primary Night event at the SNHU Field House in Manchester, New Hampshire, on Feb. 11, 2020. Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images

As the creator of “America First 2.0,” Ramaswamy stands on the shoulders of other unlikely aspirants to the Oval Office. First among them is former president and fellow 2024 hopeful Donald Trump. Like Ramaswamy, Trump is a businessman who pivoted to politics. Unlike the Indian American biotech entrepreneur, Trump is way ahead in New Hampshire polling.

Still, Mr. Ramaswamy isn’t polling too badly in New Hampshire, at least by the standards of other outsider candidates. If he has a lane, it’s probably here.

At a June 8 event at a New Hampshire church, Ramaswamy senior advisor Tricia McLaughlin told The Epoch Times that her candidate hopes to finish first or second in the state.

How would he pull it off?

“We’re actually starting this not by the traditional TV buy, ad spending stuff, [but] with bottom-up activation through in-person town halls across the state and building a team here with an actual staff and an office that’s decentralizing the process of getting people to support us,” Ramaswamy said.

“What does that mean? Actually make volunteers accountable for bringing more people into the movement,” Mr. Ramaswamy added.

Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy speaks at the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition in Clive, Iowa, on April 22, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

Zach Henry, a veteran of Blake Masters’ 2022 Senate run who now serves as deputy communications director for Ramaswamy, said the team isn’t exactly rewriting the presidential campaign playbook, yet in keeping with his anti-affirmative action stance, he seems to be aiming for a strong meritocracy.

“We encourage all our staffers and volunteers to try to reach and surpass different goals. This is pretty standard across all campaigns, but we want to give our volunteers who excel opportunities to grow within the campaign if that’s what they desire,” Henry told The Epoch Times on June 27.

Could a volunteer who starts from the bottom on a state team make it to a top role in the national campaign?

“Anything is possible on the Vivek 2024 campaign,” Henry said.

According to Henry, Ramaswamy already has “a half dozen field staffers” and “hundreds of volunteers” in the “Live Free or Die” state.

In his June 24 interview, Ramaswamy pointed out that Fred Doucette, who helped manage Trump’s 2016 and 2020 New Hampshire campaigns, is his state chair. Doucette was state co-chair for the Manhattan real estate mogul’s successful New Hampshire primary run almost eight years ago.

“He was chair for Trump before that was even a thinkable thing to do,” Ramaswamy said.

“The moment he jumped onto us is very similar to the moment when he jumped onto Trump,” he added.

New Hampshire’s Republican primary is slated for Feb. 13, 2024.

A campaign sign for Donald Trump sits outside a polling station by the state capitol on Election Day in Concord, N.H., on Nov. 3, 2020. (Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images)

‘A Little Light in One Little Spot’

Like Trump in 2016, Ramaswamy faces skepticism from political insiders and experts.

Commentators from across the political spectrum who spoke with The Epoch Times earlier this month agreed that he doesn’t stand a chance.

“Mr. Ramaswamy is probably well-intentioned but has no legitimate shot at the Oval Office,” said James Hartman, a Republican political consultant and self-described “Never Trumper” who has worked with Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) and other GOPers in the past.

Wayne Steger, a political scientist at DePaul University, wrote an influential 2004 paper on the Granite State’s primary.

“I would speculate that there would be near zero chance that Vivek Ramaswamy gets traction,” Steger said in a June 22 email interview with The Epoch Times.

“My bet would be that Ramaswamy has already seen his high point in NH polls,” he added.

He thinks Ramaswamy will come across as too educated and polished for Trump’s base in the state.

“Part of Trump’s appeal is his ability to brag about being elite without being one of the elites,” Mr. Steger said.

Before Ramaswamy came around with America First 2.0, there was Trump’s America First.

Before Trump, there was the prototype for America First candidates in recent decades: Patrick J. Buchanan, aide to Presidents Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon, and an insurgent threat to President George H.W. Bush in 1992, and Bob Dole in 1996.

Pat Buchanan is shown at the 2007 N.H. Primary Awards Dinner in Manchester, N.H., Monday, 26, 2007. The event is held to recognize individuals for their support and advocacy of the state's first-in-the-nation presidential primary. (AP Photo/Cheryl Senter)

“I am very interested in Ramaswamy,” said Buchanan’s sister Bay in a June 28 interview with The Epoch Times.

Buchanan managed her brother’s 1992, 1996, and 2000 presidential campaigns. In 1996, he narrowly won the New Hampshire primary.

Ramaswamy, she said, “stands apart a bit, but he’s in a race with many candidates. You have to somehow distinguish yourself.”

Few are predicting a Ramaswamy victory in the primary and caucus season, let alone a Ramaswamy presidency. Yet, for now, the campaign cannot be written off entirely.

Ms. Buchanan offered a lesson from the gridiron.

“Pat used to always say, you’re coming down the field, it doesn’t matter how big their front line is. If you can just see a little light in one little spot, you can sneak through,” she said.

Buchanan and Ramaswamy

Buchanan, in 1996, had some advantages that Ramaswamy currently lacks. He was a household name after decades in American politics, including a memorable run in 1992, and he'd built up a massive, national grassroots network through the Buchanan Brigades. Ramaswamy, by contrast, is still making his name known and pronounceable to millions of Americans.

Buchanan said her brother took the Granite State because he bucked conventional wisdom.

“You have to if you’re not the conventional candidate,” she told The Epoch Times.

She explained that Mr. Buchanan did something unthinkable: he flew to Alaska to campaign before that state’s caucus.

“Who goes to campaign in Alaska in January, right? Nobody, and no one’s ever been up there,” Ms. Buchanan said.

The Buchanan team also explored Louisiana. Ms. Buchanan said most other candidates ignored its caucus because they assumed Sen. Phil Gramm (R-Texas) would easily win so close to his home turf.

Clouds partially obscure Denali, the highest mountain peak in North America, as seen from inside Denali National Park, Alaska, on Sept. 22, 2022. (Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images)

Staff were sent to Alaska. The campaign wanted to identify enough Buchanan voters there to come out ahead.

“We knew that the number would be over 10,000 because we'd studied it historically,” Ms. Buchanan said.

The Buchanan Alaska gambit didn’t go unnoticed, according to Ms. Buchanan. Other candidates, including Steve Forbes, also visited the state.

The Buchanan campaign timed an anti-Forbes ad campaign just prior to the caucus.

“We just pounded him all weekend that he was not pro-life,” she said.

Mr. Forbes’ response to that move came too late, and Buchanan won Alaska.

The campaign turned around and deployed a similar strategy in Louisiana, where they ran ads against Mr. Gramm.

“Gramm just assumed he was going to win it. He didn’t campaign, he didn’t do much ads, and we pounded him and pounded him and pounded him,” Ms. Buchanan said.

The upshot: another Buchanan victory in an overlooked state.

“The political elite said, ‘Ignore Alaska and ignore Louisiana,’” Ms. Buchanan recounted.

After a second-place finish in Iowa, the campaign was under pressure in the Granite State.

“We already have an enormously strong force in New Hampshire. But they pounded us,” Ms. Buchanan said, adding that Mr. Buchanan had faced “terrible, terrible ads” in the state.

She credits a strong radio advertisement with helping her brother retain a slight edge in New Hampshire.

Unconventional thinking isn’t the only thing Ramaswamy might need. In Ms. Buchanan’s view, he must commit an enormous amount of time to the state to perform well.

“If he thinks he’s going to pull this thing off in New Hampshire, he has to be living in New Hampshire,” she said.

“But Trump’s got a big name. It’s going to be hard to beat him,” she added.

One lingering question is whether Mr. Ramaswamy is more of a Pat Buchanan or more of a Steve Forbes. Like Mr. Buchanan, he’s running as an America First populist. Like Mr. Forbes, he’s a businessman who makes ideas central to his campaign.

Steve Forbes, President and Chief Executive Officer of Forbes and Editor-in-Chief of Forbes magazine. (Mark Von Holden/Getty Images)

“Ideas guys are not made for primaries,” Ms. Buchanan said.

She recalled watching Mr. Reagan’s speeches on the 1980 presidential campaign trail. Ms. Buchanan, who went on to serve as Mr. Reagan’s Treasury Secretary, noted that the press often dismissed those speeches as repetitive and boring.

“What they weren’t noticing is that the people in the audience, whether it be 20 or 2,000, are crying and laughing and moved by him. It was an experience for them, almost a spiritual experience,” she said.

Like Mr. Ramaswamy, her brother is very cerebral. But when he came to New Hampshire, he had to get used to retail politics–one-on-one interactions with everyday people across the state.

“One-on-one transformed him. He started talking to people his age losing jobs, worried about how they’re going to make it through Christmas, talking to him about these things–he was extremely moved,” Ms. Buchanan said, adding that it strengthened his focus on economic nationalism.

“He became an exceptional candidate because he had to meet with people one-on-one,” she added.

Another 2024 hopeful, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., strikes her as an exceptional candidate because of that human factor.

“He’s got the Kennedy charm,” Ms. Buchanan said.

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. attends Keep it Clean to benefit Waterkeeper Alliance in Los Angeles, Calif., on March 1, 2018. (John Sciulli/Getty Images for Waterkeeper Alliance)

The View from Concord

Pat Buchanan won New Hampshire’s primary less than three decades ago. That’s not so long ago, even by the standards of a relatively young nation, but at times, it can seem like a different world.

The streets of Concord, New Hampshire, in 2023 look more like America circa 1996 than those of many other American cities.

The pre-Millennial feel doesn’t last. Unnaturally dyed hair, forests of tattoos, faces buried in smartphones, and, every so often, a “Progress Pride” flag–all this and more awakens a visitor to the Current Year.

On the warm afternoon of June 23, a fire engine had blocked off Main Street for a summer festival. A few hundred feet from the golden-domed New Hampshire State House, families wandered from tent to tent.

The cool interior of the capitol building is a kind of reliquary to the Civil War–eerily fitting at a time when some are openly calling for a “national divorce.”

A portrait of Union General John Adams Dix is captioned with a stark warning: “If anyone attempts to haul down the American flag, shoot him on the spot.”

Decades after the Supreme Court held that burning the American flag is protected speech–and at a time when burning the pride flag can carry up to a decade and a half of prison time–Dix’s sincerity and conviction might also seem alien to past generations of Americans. Whatever the various Republican hopefuls are fighting for, it doesn’t look much like the country in 1996, let alone the Union in 1861.

Upstairs, one of the few officials still left in the building that Friday afternoon was New Hampshire’s Secretary of State, Republican David Scanlan. He sat down for an impromptu interview with The Epoch Times.

Mr. Scanlan pointed out that the Democrats’ primary calendar, in which South Carolina now comes first, conflicts with New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation status. That role isn’t just traditional; the state has enshrined it in law.

“New Hampshire voters are used to having a lot of attention in the presidential primary. It’s part of our culture,” he said.

Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden addresses the crowd during a South Carolina campaign launch party in Columbia, South Carolina, on Feb. 11, 2020. (Sean Rayford/Getty Images)

Some Democrats have suggested New Hampshire is simply too white to go first. Mr. Scanlan thinks that’s based on some mistaken assumptions about diversity.

“The diversity of ideas in New Hampshire is quite large,” he said.

Mr. Scanlan argued that his state’s limited size and small media market lend themselves to a first-in-the-nation primary.

“It is a place, maybe the only place, where a fourth grader that had the childhood dream of growing up to be president of the United States can actually come here and try and make it happen,” he said.

Like Ms. Buchanan, he stressed that candidates must “go out and meet with voters.”

While some may argue that Mr. Trump’s entry into the race last November has accelerated the election season, Mr. Scanlan doesn’t see it that way.

“It’s not unusual for campaigns for New Hampshire’s presidential primary to start right after the midterm elections,” he said.

Mr. Scanlan observed that Ramswamy “has been campaigning hard.”

“I think he’s a viable candidate. Certainly, he has a following in New Hampshire. His message is being absorbed by voters in the state. We have to wait and see how well he does at the end,” he said.

Back on Main Street, local Republicans had set up their own tent.

Thom Bloomquist told The Epoch Times what he'd been hearing from likely GOP primary voters in the area.

“Some want Trump. Some want DeSantis. The occasional person wants Vivek,” he said.

“Even if he [Ramaswamy] doesn’t get the presidency, he would make a great finance minister,” added Mr. Bloomquist.

Andrew Georgevits, who chairs the Concord Republican City Committee, told The Epoch Times that North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum’s name has been coming up among prospective voters.

“He’s doing a ton of mail in the State of New Hampshire,” Mr. Georgevits said.

He said Ramaswamy had packed a 40-person room to the point of overflow at one recent morning event.

“For a 7 a.m. breakfast, that was pretty impressive. People came out in those droves to see him,” Mr. Georgevits said.

Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy speaks to an Epoch Times reporter at the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition in Clive, Iowa, on April 22, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

Debate ‘A True Test’

Mr. Georgevits thinks the first debate, scheduled for August 23, will be a great filter for candidates. Those seeking to participate must hit 1 percent across multiple polls, pledge to back the party’s ultimate nominee, and raise money from 40,000 unique donors, “with at least 200 unique donors per state or territory in 20+ states and/or territories,” according to the Republican National Committee.

Ms. McLaughlin told The Epoch Times on June 8 that Ramaswamy had already met all the criteria to take part in that event.

The debate, Mr. Georgevits said, is “going to be a true test of seeing who survives this primary process.”

Ms. Buchanan agreed that the back-and-forth between Ramaswamy and other GOP contenders could be hugely important.

“There may come a time when people decide they don’t want Trump, and then it'll be a free-for-all. That time hasn’t come yet. But if you’re up there [in New Hampshire] and working it, you know, and you get enough people, the key will then be the debates,” she said.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump listens to Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton during the second presidential debate at Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri on October 9, 2016. (PAUL J. RICHARDS/AFP/Getty Images)

“Can he distinguish himself in the debates?” she asked.

If so, an outstanding performance in August might be Ramaswamy’s “little light in one little spot.”