RIO DE JANEIRO—When a measure to impeach Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff was introduced to Congress late last year, the possibility that she would actually be removed from office seemed remote.
The charges against her were obscure, not the variety that spurs outrage: She is alleged to have broken fiscal rules in her handling of the federal budget to hide deficits and bolster an embattled government. The allegations also came with a good dose of irony: Her main opponents in Congress are accused of crimes much worse.
Yet, what started as a long shot bid has gained momentum and, as the Senate prepares to vote Wednesday on whether to put her on trial, many analysts consider Rousseff’s ouster all but a foregone conclusion.
“Dilma will be impeached for a variety of reasons,” said Marcos Troyjo, a professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs. “And the possibility of her coming back is zero.”
If a simple majority of the Senate’s 81 members vote to take up the impeachment measure, Rousseff will be suspended from office while a trial is conducted within the next 180 days. In the interim, Vice President Michel Temer will take over. A conviction, requiring a two-thirds vote, would remove her permanently.
Brazilian newspapers’ polling of senators has found that around 50, many more than necessary, plan to vote for a trial. But it’s not clear that all of those would also vote to convict her. A tally by the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo suggests that so far only 41 senators are willing to remove Rousseff from office permanently — 13 short of the number needed.
