In less than three weeks, a new U.S. President will be elected. The polls show that McCain is still behind Obama. I however, do not generally believe in the polls. I had an interesting conversation with an American colleague of mine several days ago regarding this matter.
The Polls Are Unreliable
The colleague told me on the day of an election that supporters of each candidate will gather not far away from the polling booths to campaign for more votes at the last minute. Those who don’t really care who they vote for, sometimes vote for a certain candidate based on their impression of his or her supporters.
Many people do not vote based on the issues. Some people even change their minds the last minute when standing in front of the voting machine, because of thoughts such as “Isn’t McCain a little too old?” or “Would Obama’s tax plan have a negative effect on me?”
In the afternoon of the 2004 presidential election, all of a sudden the majority of people started to bet that George W. Bush would lose the election based on the exit poll. Most people said they voted for John Kerry when they left the poll, which was not true.
Polls during elections are often used for psychological warfare. There are too many uncertainties that can change the outcome of an election.
