Thanksgiving Dinner Will Cost a Lot More This Year

People shop for frozen turkeys at a grocery store in Mount Prospect, Ill., on Nov. 17, 2021. (Nam Y. Huh/AP Photo)

It’s going to cost a lot more to feast on turkey, ham, and mashed potatoes at this year’s Thanksgiving dinner.

According to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), the typical Thanksgiving dinner includes the staples of a 16-pound turkey, a gallon of milk, potatoes, ham, and dinner rolls.

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data (pdf) show that an 8- to 16-pound turkey cost $1.99 per pound on Oct. 21, up from $1.15 at the same time last year. That represents almost a 75 percent increase.

The price of boneless ham increased 13.6 percent in September from a year ago to $5.50 per pound, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) show. The cost of white potatoes has spiked 27.7 percent to $1.02 per pound, while the cost of a loaf of white bread has increased 10.7 percent to $1.75 a pound. The price of a gallon of fresh whole milk has surged 16.6 percent to $4.18.

The prices of a wide range of miscellaneous ingredients have also increased at a significant rate over the past year, including butter (26.6 percent), flour (24.2 percent), spices and seasoning (13.8 percent), sugar (17.1 percent), sauces and gravies (16.3 percent), and coffee (15.7 percent).

Overall, food prices have soared over the last year, with the BLS food index climbing at an annualized pace of 11.2 percent. Grocery store prices increased 13 percent year-over-year in September, while the cost of visiting a restaurant has risen 8.5 percent compared to the same time a year ago.

People shop at a grocery store in New York City on May 31, 2022. (Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times)

Inflated food prices have been driven by a broad array of factors, including volatile weather conditions in key growing areas, the Ukraine–Russia conflict, surging energy prices and labor costs, and the bird flu.

Bird Flu

The continuous bird flu outbreak has affected the price and supply of turkey, chicken, and eggs. The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus usually becomes prevalent in the colder months, but commercial turkey producers contended with the flu in July, the time of year when farmers begin raising flocks for the coming holiday season.

So far this year, nearly 48 million birds have been affected, with the disease detected in 42 states. The only way to limit its spread is to kill entire flocks, which can consist of about 15,000 birds.

The issue isn’t limited to the United States. A vast number of bird flu cases are being reported in Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. Millions of birds have been culled as a result.

Experts believe that transmission has increased immensely over the past year, and the illness is spreading to mammals at a faster pace. Scientists are unsure why the outbreak is intensifying, but some theories argue that mutations have allowed the virus to replicate and infect a variety of bird species.

“All of us are feeling the pain of higher prices at the grocery store,” AFBF President Zippy Duvall said in a statement. “HPAI outbreaks in the spring and an uptick in cases in the fall are taking a toll, but farmers remain dedicated to ensuring America’s food supply remains strong.”

Meanwhile, another aspect has been the notable 8.1 percent year-over-year increase in turkey feed prices. That’s in addition to the rising energy, fertilizer, and labor costs that farmers are now facing.

The USDA’s latest Farm Sector Income Forecast anticipates record-high overall production costs, which are projected to skyrocket nearly 18 percent to $437.4 billion this year.

Can Americans Afford Thanksgiving?

With the annual inflation rate above 8 percent, real wage growth (inflation-adjusted) still in negative territory, and consumers exhausting their pandemic-era savings, can Americans afford Thanksgiving this year?

According to a recent Personal Capital survey, one-quarter of Americans plan to skip Thanksgiving dinners this year to save money.

Others are adjusting their plans to adapt to the increasing cost of living. The survey showed that more than one-third of Americans planned to have smaller dinners, while 88 percent said they would eliminate at least one dish from the dinner table. Another quarter of consumers would budget $100 at most for their 2022 Thanksgiving dinner.

“As the holidays creep closer and food prices continue to rise, this year’s food-centered festivities may require an extra focus on finances. Some hosts are tightening their budgets by trimming the guest list, editing the menu, or asking for contributions. Others are skipping the holiday altogether,” the report states.

With the national average price for a gallon of gasoline at nearly $4 again, visiting family members for Thanksgiving might also be an exorbitant trip, adding to the growing cost of the holiday.