In February, the Epoch Times’ How Accurate are Rivals.com Rankings? followed what happened to the Rivals class of 2010 five years after they enrolled in their respective colleges. In this segment, we would like to extend that analysis to Rivals’ 2009 class.
First, we will list the entire 2009 Rivals top 100 with an added column for when the players were drafted, and if they weren’t drafted, their current/last known whereabouts. Afterwards, we will conduct further analysis to access the accuracy of the 2009 rankings.
Rank | Name | Pos | Ht | Wt | College | NFL Draft/ Professional Status |
#1 | RB | 6'0” | 215 | 7th round 2012, Phildelphia Eagles (Now with Buffalo Bills) | ||
#2 | WR | 6'3” | 195 | 2nd round 2012, New York Giants | ||
#3 | OL | 6'7” | 350 | 1st round 2013, San Diego Chargers | ||
#4 | DT | 6'4” | 292 | 1st round 2013, New York Jets | ||
#5 | QB | 6'2” | 226 | 4th round 2013, Philadelphia Eagles | ||
#6 | RB | 5'11” | 210 | 1st round 2012, Cleveland Browns (Now with Oakland Raiders) | ||
#7 | QB | 6'1” | 179 | Undrafted 2013, Currently with Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ||
#8 | DE | 6'3” | 257 | 5th round 2014, New York Giants | ||
#9 | LB | 6'2” | 244 | Undrafted 2012, Currently with Cincinnati Bengals | ||
#10 | LB | 6'2” | 220 | 4th round 2013, Miami Dolphins | ||
#11 | DB | 6'2” | 180 | 1st round 2012, Cincinnati Bengals | ||
#12 | LB | 6'2” | 225 | 2nd round 2013, San Diego Chargers | ||
#13 | ATH | 6'4” | 218 | Undrafted 2013, Currently with Oakland Raiders | ||
#14 | DE | 6'4” | 232 | 4th round 2013, Arizona Cardinals | ||
#15 | DT | 6'0” | 267 | Undrafted 2014, Currently with Cleveland Browns | ||
#16 | DE | 6'4” | 235 | Undrafted 2012, no NFL team, now with San Jose Sabercats of AFL | ||
#17 | DB | 6'0” | 174 | Undrafted 2012, Currently a free agent – last played for Toronto Argonauts of CFL in 2013. Was rostered by the New York Giants for a little over three months in 2012. | ||
#18 | QB | 6'4” | 205 | 6th round 2014, St Louis Rams, Currently with Detroit Lions | ||
#19 | ATH | 6'1” | 181 | Suspended in 2010 by USC coach Lane Kiffin. Last known to have played for Ventura College in 2013. | ||
#20 | DB | 6'2” | 193 | Undrafted, Jacksonville Jaguars | ||
#21 | WR | 6'0” | 170 | 7th round 2015, Oakland Raiders | ||
#22 | RB | 5'11” | 202 | 2nd round 2013, Seattle Seahawks | ||
#23 | DT | 6'3” | 275 | Dismissed from USC football in 2010 for striking two females at party. No known football activity afterwards. | ||
#24 | DB | 6'0” | 180 | Undrafted, Last reported to be at Edmonton Camp(CFL). Beforehand, spent some time with Cincinati Bengals and Carolina Panthers. | ||
#25 | DT | 6'4” | 318 | Currently playing for Tulane University | ||
#26 | DT | 6'5” | 317 | 6th round 2013, New York Jets, Currently with Buffalo Bills (practice squad) | ||
#27 | DB | 5'9” | 175 | Undrafted 2013. Briefly rostered by St Louis Rams in 2014. Currently with the Jacksonville Sharks (AFL) | ||
#28 | DB | 5'11” | 171 | Undrafted, cut by Buccaneers in 2013, Last known to have tried out for Toronto Argonauts (CFL) | ||
#29 | OL | 6'6” | 290 | Currently playing for University of Texas Austin | ||
#30 | DB | 6'2” | 200 | 3rd round 2013, Currently with St Louis Rams | ||
#31 | DB | 6'0” | 180 | Undrafted 2013, Currently with Carolina Panthers | ||
#32 | LB | 6'3” | 226 | 4th round 2013, Kansas City Chiefs, Currently with Cincinnati Bengals | ||
#33 | LB | 6'0” | 226 | Suspended from Ohio State football in May 2011 for violation of alcohol policy. Last known to have played for Duquesne University. | ||
#34 | ATH | 6'2” | 192 | Last known to have played for Valdosta State University. | ||
#35 | DB | 6'2” | 186 | Last known to have played for Walsh University | ||
#36 | DT | 6'3” | 280 | Undrafted 2013, Currently free agent. Signed briefly with San Diego Chargers in 2013. | ||
#37 | OL | 6'6” | 263 | Undrafted 2013, Currently with Washington Redskins | ||
#38 | DE | 6'4” | 255 | 4th round 2013, Atlanta Falcons | ||
#39 | ATH | 5'10” | 175 | Undrafted 2014, Signed briefly with Seattle Seahawks in 2014 | ||
#40 | RB | 5'11” | 192 | 1st round 2012, New York Giants | ||
#41 | DB | 6'0” | 165 | Undrafted 2012, Signed briefly with Philadelphia Eagles in 2012 and New York Jets in 2013. | ||
#42 | DE | 6'7” | 245 | 6th round 2013, Oakland Raiders. Currently free agent. Was released by Raiders following sophomore season. | ||
#43 | DB | 6'0” | 185 | Undrafted 2014, Signed with Detroit Lions briefly. | ||
#44 | LB | 6'3” | 220 | 4th round 2012, Detroit Lions, Last played for Los Angeles KISS in 2015(AFL) | ||
#45 | LB | 6'2” | 235 | Undrafted 2014, Currently with Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ||
#46 | QB | 6'0” | 198 | 5th round 2014, Kansas City Chiefs | ||
#47 | OL | 6'6” | 310 | Undrafted 2013, Briefly signed with Cleveland Browns during 2013-14 season. | ||
#48 | WR | 6'2” | 184 | Undrafted, no NFL team, Last known to have signed with Jacksonville Sharks in October 2014. | ||
#49 | OL | 6'7” | 347 | 3rd round 2013, Washington Redskins | ||
#50 | WR | 6'3” | 215 | Dismissed from Mississippi in 2010 for violating team rules. | ||
#51 | QB | 6'0” | 208 | 6th round 2014, New York Jets (Currently with Pittsburgh Steelers) | ||
#52 | OL | 6'5” | 290 | Undrafted, signed briefly with the Indianapolis Colts in 2014. | ||
#53 | WR | 6'5” | 205 | Undrafted 2013, Currently with Baltimore Ravens | ||
#54 | LB | 6'2” | 207 | 7th round 2013, Atlanta Falcons. Currently a free agent. | ||
#55 | DT | 6'4” | 280 | Last known to have planned to transfer from Texas in February 2012. | ||
#56 | RB | 5'10” | 185 | Last known to have played with Murray State University. | ||
#57 | RB | 5'10” | 204 | 7th round 2012, San Diego Chargers (Currently with New Orleans Saints) | ||
#58 | WR | 6'0” | 168 | 5th round 2013, Pittsburgh Steelers | ||
#59 | RB | 5'10” | 200 | Undrafted 2013, Currently with Hamilton Tiger-Cats (CFL). Signed briefly with Chicago Bears following 2013 draft. | ||
#60 | QB | 6'2” | 185 | Last known to have played for Texas A&M University in 2014. | ||
#61 | DE | 6'4” | 235 | Last known to have rejoined Tampa Bay Storm (AFL) in May 2015. | ||
#62 | WR | 6'2” | 230 | 4th round 2012, Cincinnati Bengals (Currently with New Orleans Saints) | ||
#63 | OL | 6'4” | 285 | 2nd round 2014, Houston Texans | ||
#64 | LB | 6'1” | 218 | 2nd round 2013, Chicago Bears | ||
#65 | WR | 6'6” | 202 | Undrafted 2013, Currently with Cleveland Browns. | ||
#66 | OL | 6'3” | 320 | Undrafted. Was rostered by the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins in 2014. | ||
#67 | LB | 6'3” | 215 | Undrafted, spent time with the Chicago Bears at some point. | ||
#68 | WR | 5'8” | 151 | Undrafted, signed with Colts for two days in December 2014, but was arrested for Felony charges. | ||
#69 | OL | 6'6” | 308 | Undrafted, was looking to do music after college. | ||
#70 | DE | 6'3” | 263 | Undrafted, Signed briefly with Seattle Seahawks in May 2014. | ||
#71 | TE | 6'6” | 233 | 4th round 2014, Arizona Cardinals
| ||
#72 | DE | 6'3” | 226 | 1st round 2013, Pittsburgh Steelers | ||
#73 | DE | 6'4” | 252 | Was arrested on multiple charges in 2009. Withdrew from OU in 2010. | ||
#74 | DB | 6'2” | 190 | Left Ohio State football due to shoulder injuries in 2012. | ||
#75 | WR | 6'2” | 170 | Last known to have played for Louisville University. | ||
#76 | RB | 6'0” | 192 | Undrafted 2013, Last played for Seattle Seahawks as practice squad member in 2014 | ||
#77 | OL | 6'3” | 280 | 3rd round 2014, San Diego Chargers | ||
#78 | DB | 5'11” | 196 | Last known to have transferred out of OU in 2011. | ||
#79 | LB | 6'0” | 230 | Dismissed from Tennessee in 2011. | ||
#80 | RB | 5'11” | 205 | 4th round 2012, Miami Dolphins | ||
#81 | OL | 6'2” | 300 | Undrafted 2013, Signed briefly with Miami Dolphins following 2013 draft. Currently free agent. | ||
#82 | DB | 5'10” | 178 | Undrafted 2013, currently with New England Patriots | ||
#83 | ATH | 6'2” | 205 | Currently with the San Diego Padres of Minor league baseball. | ||
#84 | ATH | 6'1” | 180 | 1st round 2012, Buffalo Bills | ||
#85 | OL | 6'8” | 290 | Left Michigan St. in 2011 due to lower back problems. | ||
#86 | OL | 6'6” | 301 | Undrafted 2014, currently with Philadelphia Eagles practice squad. | ||
#87 | ATH | 6'3” | 215 | Out of football. Spent some time as athlete intern for USC, currently grad student (Linkedin) | ||
#88 | OL | 6'7” | 302 | Currently sales consultant in Pennsylvania (Linkedin) | ||
#89 | DT | 6'3” | 277 | Currently Grad student (Linkedin) | ||
#90 | WR | 6'2” | 183 | Undrafted 2013, currently with Indianapolis Colts | ||
#91 | ATH | 6'3” | 232 | Last known to have tried out with Dallas Cowboys in May 2015. | ||
#92 | DB | 5'11” | 186 | 5th round 2013, St. Louis Rams | ||
#93 | DE | 6'3” | 243 | Currently in real estate (linkedin) | ||
#94 | DE | 6'4” | 240 | 1st round 2012, Philadelphia Eagles | ||
#95 | DT | 6'3” | 273 | Undrafted 2013, currently with Jacksonville Jaguars | ||
#96 | WR | 6'4” | 215 | Signed briefly with Seattle Seahawks in July 2014. | ||
#97 | RB | 5'10” | 186 | Last known to have played for Arkansas State university. | ||
#98 | DB | 6'0” | 188 | Last known to have played for the University of Tennessee. | ||
#99 | WR | 6'3” | 214 | 2nd round 2012, Chicago Bears | ||
#100 | OL | 6‘2’’ | 264 | USC | Undrafted, Last known to have signed with Portland Thunder(AFL) in July 2014, no NFL team |
* = Five star recruit
How Accurate are Rivals Rankings for the Class of 2009?
In our analysis, we want to see if there’s a correlation between:
1. Rivals ranking and likelihood of being drafted into the NFL.
2. Rivals ranking and likelihood of becoming a mainstay NFL player.
To do this, we broke the list of 100 players into three tiers. Players ranked #1-33 make up tier 1, and these are the five star recruits. Players ranked 34-67 are the first half of four star recruits, and players 68-100 are the second half of four star recruits in this sample of 100 players. We will then observe how many players were drafted into the NFL and how many players are mainstay NFL players for each tier.
We make a point of mainstay NFL players because sometimes a drafted player is ousted from the league rather quickly. Other times, undrafted players become a major coup. There are also many players who latch on to a team as exclusively offseason players, but they are usually cut once the season begins. Players tagged with a ‘briefly signed’ under their description in the above table are usually of this variety. So by ’mainstay NFL players’, we are precisely referring to NFL players that don’t fall into this category. In other words, we are referring to players that have long term value on NFL rosters, though of course their caliber can still vary. If we assume that Rivals rankings are accurate, the amount of players should decrease by tier for both variables. Here’s what we found:
Fraction of Players Drafted
| Tier 1: 5-Star Recruits | 17/33 |
| Tier 2: 4-Star Recruits (ranked 34 through 67) | 14/34 |
| Tier 3: 4-Star Recruits (ranked 68 through 100) | 8/33 |
Fraction of Mainstay NFL Players
| Tier 1 | 22/33 |
| Tier 2 | 16/34 |
| Tier 3 | 11/33 |
Notice that for both variables, there is a decrease in the number of players by tier, or as the ranking gets lower. This seems to contradict some of the sentiment out there that rankings given out by Rivals and other recruiting agencies are unreliable and merely speculation.
But actually, what people mean when they say to take Rivals rankings with a grain of salt is that a lot of elite NFL players were not high ranking recruits. In other words, in regards to the players who do make it to the NFL, there is little correlation between Rivals ranking and talent level. Next, to analyze this, we charted the distribution of players by round drafted for each tier (using the general assumption that higher drafted players are more talented).
And indeed we see that there isn’t a great difference in distribution across rounds between the three tiers. If we are to really get technical, the difference is not statistically significant. This is for talent level coming out of college. For the professional level, just glancing through the top 100 list we find current elite players at the top of the list (#4 Sheldon Richardson, #9 Vontaze Burfict) as well as at the bottom of the list (#94 Fletcher Cox, #99 Alshon Jeffery).
Therefore, at least from our analysis of the 2009 as well as 2010 class, we'd like to conclude that Rivals rankings are accurate to the point that they can predict likelihood of making it into the NFL, but not caliber of player within the NFL.
