At least one blog is predicting that Hemlock Grove will be the first Netflix original to be canceled.
Season 2 just premiered back on, and fans have been wondering whether the show will be canceled or renewed.
The Motley Fool writer Tim Beyers notes that Netflix focuses on funding original series that customers can’t get elsewhere, such as House of Cards, Orange is the New Black, and Hemlock Grove.
“Our intent is to continue to expand the content library,” CEO David Wells told investors back in March, per S&P Capital IQ. “If we’re going to meaningfully address the 60 million to 90 million [potential U.S. subscribers], we’ll need to do that by adding more originals, we need to do that by adding more breadth of content. And part of that is making our content more exclusive, so moving it from nonexclusive to exclusive, and offering more curated offerings.”
But Beyers points out that after looking at the data–other than viewing figures, which Netflix doesn’t make available to the public–Hemlock Grove could be up for cancellation.
“On Netflix, more than 1.5 million people had rated the show as of this writing, giving it a combined 3.9 out of 5 stars. By comparison, 3.9 million have weighed in on House of Cards (4.8 stars) while 5.8 million have rated Orange Is the New Black (4.4 stars). Among Netflix originals, Hemlock Grove is a weak performer,” he said.
He also compared Hemlock Grove to Orange is the New Black and drama Ray Donovan in social data measurements from Social Mention. Hemlock Grove has lower strength and reach than both shows. It had 6 percent strength, a measure of the likelihood of the show being discussed on social media, compared to 42 percent for Orange and 10 percent for Ray.
Beyer points out that it’s practically impossible to predict a cancellation for a Netflix series but that if Hemolck Grove is cancelled, it will be because “the investment required outweighs the subscribers and the viewing hours we predict for the series,” quoting Netflix’s executive in charge of content Cindy Holland.
Either way, an announcement should be coming soon.