Helmut Norpoth, Moody’s Models Show Different Results for Election Day

Helmut Norpoth's 'Primary Model' has been accurate every time since 1912
November 8, 2016 2:43 pm Last Updated: November 8, 2016 3:04 pm

Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor at Stony Brook University, is using a model that says Donald Trump will take the presidency—but one from Moody’s as of Nov. 8 suggests a big victory for Clinton.

The model Norpoth is using has predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1912, with the exception of 2000—when Al Gore won the popular vote but was bested George W. Bush in the Electoral College.

“If [Clinton] was leading by 10 or 20 points, I would say this is not going to be my year, but I don’t see it,” he told the New York Post, noting that many polls are showing Clinton up by about 3 points. “It’s so close. It’s certainly do-able [for him], even when you look at the polls.”

The Moody’s Analytics model, based on economic factors as well as political indicators, suggests that Clinton will take the White House. She’ll take 332 votes in the Electoral College, the Post reported.

“When people feel better about their personal financial situations, they’re probably more happy with the status quo, and probably more likely to vote for the incumbent,” said Dan White, who is a senior economist at Moody’s.

He noted that this year’s election is unlike any other.

“The biggest caveat for this model is it doesn’t take into account any personal characteristics about the candidates themselves,” White explained.

The S&P 500, meanwhile, has predicted that Trump will take the election, saying the businessman has an 86 percent chance of winning. The indicator has been accurate 86.4 percent of the time since 1928, and the last time it was incorrect was in 1980 when Ronald Reagan won. It’s been accurate every time since 1984.

The latest RealClearPolitics average shows Clinton, a Democrat, with a 3.2-point lead over Trump, a Republican.