Heading Into Super Tuesday, Polls Try to Predict the Democrat Presidential Nominee

March 2, 2020 Updated: March 2, 2020
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Democrats in 14 states, American Samoa, and abroad will cast their ballots on March 3, Super Tuesday, for who they want to represent their party against President Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election. Thirty-four percent, or 1,357, of the pledged delegates for the Democratic National Convention will be assigned in what could be the deciding factor for presidential hopefuls.

Each of the Super Tuesday states’ pledged delegates will help to decide which candidate they think can take on Trump in November’s general election.

California has 415 pledged delegates, Texas has 228, North Carolina has 110, Virginia has 99, Massachusetts has 91, Minnesota has 75, Colorado has 67, Tennessee has 64, Alabama has 52, Oklahoma has 37, Arkansas has 31, Maine has 24, Utah has 29, Vermont has 16, and American Samoa has 6.

So far, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has been leading the pack for Democratic nominee, with victories in the first 4 primaries but lost some of his momentum in the most recent South Carolina primary to former Vice President Joe Biden, who received 39 delegates versus Sanders’s 15.

Meanwhile, billionaire former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has spent millions on ads heading into each primary. Super Tuesday will be when Americans see if his ads translated into enough delegates to beat Sanders or Biden.

California, with by far the largest portion of delegates, is a focus for the candidates. According to some recent polls done there, Sanders is leading in the state and has also drawn large crowds at his rally.

A USA Today/Suffolk Poll released Monday had Sanders with 35 percent, Bloomberg with 16 percent, Biden with 14 percent, and Warren 12 percent. A CBS News Battleground Tracker/YouGov poll that came out Sunday morning shows Sanders with a noteworthy lead in the state with largest delegate prize. The Vermont senator is at 31 percent in the polling, well ahead of Biden and Warren, at 19 and 18 percent respectively, while Bloomberg trails at 12 percent.

Monday’s Emerson Poll shows Sanders with 38 percent, Biden with 21 percent, Warren with 16 percent, and Bloomberg with 11 percent. Although the former vice president is trailing, he has been endorsed by Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.). Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) has yet to make her choice public.

Texas is the state with the next largest delegate count. According to polling released over the past two days, Sanders is looking like the favorite in the Lone-Star state.

The self-described Democratic socialist has a wide lead in an NBC News/Marist poll: 15 points over Biden—34 percent to 19 percent—Bloomberg is third at 15 percent. Monday’s Emerson Poll also shows Sanders leading in Texas with 31 points, and Biden in his shadow at 26 points, with Bloomberg trailing with 16 points.

But a CBS News Battleground Tracker/YouGov poll shows a much closer contest: Sanders leads Biden by just 4 points, 30 percent to 26 percent. Warren comes in third at 17 percent, while Bloomberg is trailing at 13 percent.

In other Southern states, the race looks less definitive. An NBC News/Marist poll in North Carolina shows Sanders at 26 percent, and Biden at 24 percent. Bloomberg is in third at 15 percent.

Then there’s Virginia, where a Christopher Newport University poll released on Friday shows Biden with 22 percent, ahead of Sanders’s 17 percent and Bloomberg’s 13 percent.

The candidate that wins the most votes on Super Tuesday will likely be the Democratic nominee, or, at the very least, be hard to catch up to.