Some experts had forecast a red wave. Others believed the country would be hit with a red tsunami. For months, opinions varied on the magnitude of just how much Republicans would dominate the midterm elections. The anticipated surge did not happen, though, as Democrats performed better than expected in House, Senate, and gubernatorial elections across the country on Nov. 8.
Tightly contested races continued to unfold in some states on Nov. 9, including Senate campaigns in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. While Republicans were expected to win enough seats to regain control of the House, it is yet to be determined if they will claim a Senate majority.
In the Senate, Trump-backed Mehmet Oz lost to Democrat John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, Don Bolduc was defeated by Sen. Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire, Leora Levy fell to Richard Blumenthal in Connecticut, and Gerald Malloy lost to Peter Welch in Vermont.
J.R. Majewski and Madison Gesiotto Gilbert in Ohio, John Gibbs in Michigan, and Karoline Leavitt in New Hampshire are among the Trump-backed House candidates who did not prevail.
Rep. Mayra Flores (R-Texas) was supported by Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.
Following her loss to Democrat Vicente Gonzalez on Nov. 8 after winning a special election to earn her seat in June, Flores tweeted, “The RED WAVE did not happen. Republicans and Independents stayed home. DO NOT COMPLAIN ABOUT THE RESULTS IF YOU DID NOT DO YOUR PART!”
Some conservatives on Wednesday blamed former President Donald Trump for backing candidates who either lost or are currently losing.
Trump-endorsed gubernatorial candidates who are staunch supporters of the former president lost, including Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania, Tudor Dixon in Michigan, Dan Cox in Maryland, Tim Michels in Wisconsin, Lee Zeldin in New York, and Darren Bailey in Illinois.
Trump’s overall endorsement record is still successful. As of Nov. 9, 216 Republican candidates backed by the former president won their midterm elections while 19 lost to Democrats.
“We have the worst inflation in four decades, the worst collapse in real wages in 40 years, the worst crime wave since the 1990s, the worst border crisis in U.S. history. We have Joe Biden, who is the least popular since Harry Truman, and there was no red wave,” commentator and journalist Marc Thiessen told the hosts of “America’s Newsroom” on Fox News.
“That is a searing indictment of the Republican Party; that is a searing indictment of the message that we have been sending to the voters.”
David Carlucci, a former New York state senator who is a Democratic campaign strategist, agrees.
“Even with President Biden’s low approval ratings, the Republicans did not get the expected push, and now the finger-pointing will begin,” Carlucci said.
The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade also contributed to why Republicans did not experience a red wave, according to Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of Rutgers University’s Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling.
“The conservative Supreme Court justices’ elimination of federal abortion rights protections wiped out a legal status quo that had existed for half a century and is a rare example of a dramatic policy shift clearly opposed by the incumbent president,” Koning wrote in a news release. “Millions more Americans confronted the possibility that if they or someone in their family should need an abortion, they could be blocked from getting it by the government.
“A shift in national political sentiment was quickly evident in special election results,” Koning added. “That—and Democratic messaging and advertising heavily focused on it—appears to have mobilized Democratic base voters who’d otherwise tune out for the midterms and convinced swing voters that Republicans have moved the country too far to the right.”
The morning after Election Night, Trump mentioned the victories of Sen. Chuck Grassley in Iowa, Sen. Marco Rubio in Florida, Sen. Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, and Sen. Mike Lee in Utah along with J.D. Vance in Ohio, Eric Schmitt in Missouri, and Ted Budd in North Carolina.
“There is a fake news narrative that I was furious—it is just the opposite,” Trump told Fox News Digital. “The people I endorsed did very well. I was batting 98.6 percent in the primaries, and 216 to 19 in the general election—that is amazing.”
In an interview with News Nation before Election Night results were announced, Trump joked, "Well, I think if they win, I should get all the credit. If they lose, I should not be blamed at all.
“But it will probably be just the opposite,” Trump added before saying that “when” Republicans win, he will “probably be given very little credit” but “if they do badly, they will blame everything on me.”
There is widespread speculation that Trump will announce his intent to run for president in 2024 this month.
At a Save America Rally on Election Day Eve in Dayton, Ohio, Trump told supporters, “Not to detract from tomorrow’s very important, even critical, election … I’m going to be making a very big announcement on Tuesday, November 15, at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida.”
The statement elicited loud cheers.
At the rally, Trump also showed a recent poll that indicated he has a substantial lead over DeSantis and other possible candidates for the 2024 Republican Presidential nomination.
With Republican candidates not performing as well as anticipated on Election Night, a growing number of conservatives could shift their support from Trump to DeSantis, Carlucci believes.
“All eyes, especially within the Republican party, will be on DeSantis,” Carlucci said. “He outperformed expectations and his ability to win Miami-Dade and appeal to Latino voters were positives. He raised $200 million and still has $90 million.”
With 99 percent of the votes tabulated, DeSantis received 59.4 percent of the vote compared with Democrat Charlie Crist’s 40 percent.
DeSantis led by more than 1.5 million votes and was bolstered by residents in the heavily Latino Miami-Dade County, where he underperformed in 2018.
Mark Penn, a former pollster for President Bill Clinton, views DeSantis as the most substantial threat to Democrats in 2024.
“If DeSantis does a knock-down, drag-out primary and beats Donald Trump, DeSantis would be virtually impossible to beat in the presidency against anybody,” Penn told Fox News.
Republican governors Abbott in Texas, Mike DeWine in Ohio, and Brian Kemp in Georgia won reelection. Abbott and Kemp did so without support from Trump. DeWine, who defeated Democrat Nan Whaley by one of the largest margins in the state’s history, got a late endorsement from Trump, but DeWine has mostly avoided the former president’s visits to Ohio.
While Republicans suffered a slew of shocking losses on Election Night, Democrats were stunned when Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, was ousted by GOP state legislator Mike Lawler.
Maloney portrayed Lawler as a Trump extremist and called him “MAGA Mike.” Democrats were confident that Maloney would win in a blue-leaning district.
“There is a new battleground from north of New York City throughout the Hudson Valley,” Carlucci told The Epoch Times. “There were more toss-up congressional races in New York than any other state. Gov. Zeldin won, but Democrats lost congressional seats they expected to win.”
With the Nov. 9 announcement that Wisconsin Republican Sen. Ron Johnson had won his reelection bid, control of the Senate will likely be determined by what happens in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia.
A vast number of votes were still to be counted on Nov. 9 in Arizona, where Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly held a lead over Republican challenger Blake Masters; and Nevada, where Republican Adam Laxalt was ahead of Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, and Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake was closing the gap between herself and rival, Democratic Katie Hobbs.
If either party wins both states, it will have control of the Senate in 2023. If there is a split, the future of the chamber will likely be decided in Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock held a narrow lead over Republican Herschel Walker, but not enough to avoid a Dec. 6 runoff.
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