With political campaigns in their closing days, and early voting already begun in many states, polls show some key governors’ races tightening—even as the Democratic candidates have vastly outspent their Republican rivals.
In Michigan, the race has tightened to put Republican challenger Tudor Dixon within the margin of error in polling against Democratic incumbent Gretchen Whitmer. Whitmer, who has raised five times more cash than Dixon, according to campaign finance tracker Transparency USA, had led by double digits throughout the summer.
However, Whitmer’s most recent RCP average shows a 3.3-point lead in polls taken through Oct. 29, and the political website now rates the race a toss-up.
In Pennsylvania, Republican challenger Doug Mastriano continues to trail Democrat Josh Shapiro, who has overwhelmingly outspent him. Large Republican PACs had mostly declined to support Mastriano until now, reportedly amid concerns about his presence on the U.S. Capitol grounds on Jan. 6, 2021.
While no major poll has shown Mastriano ahead, the race tightened in late October, and Shapiro’s lead in the RCP average of polls is 6.7 points.
In New York, a race that Republicans didn’t think was within reach, Democrat incumbent Kathy Hochul has seen her double-digit lead over Republican congressman Lee Zeldin dwindle to single digits. A gaffe by Hochul during their Oct. 25 televised debate was notable.
Zeldin charged that violent crime was rampant in New York’s subways and streets and that, meanwhile, Hochul wasn’t considering policies to lock criminals up.
She responded, “Anyone who commits a crime under our laws, especially with the changes made to bail, has consequences. I don’t know why that’s so important to you.”
Hochul’s lead in the RCP average was 12.4 percentage points in early October, but closed to 5.3 points even before the debate. Zeldin had raised far less than the $45.8 million claimed by Hochul’s camp but has reportedly seen millions flowing in late in the race.
Analysts downplayed the disparity in candidates’ fundraising.
Jacob Neiheisel, an associate professor of political science at the University at Buffalo, says outsiders shouldn’t rush to conclusions about a shortage of money or running fewer ads.
“It can mean [donors] are not worried about those races or that they have better prospects elsewhere. It can mean they feel OK in those places, or it could be that it’s a lost cause, and they’re backing out.”
Campaigns might meanwhile be spending money unobtrusively on digital media, he told The Epoch Times.
“If they believe there’s a wave favoring Republicans, Republican money will come fast and furious in places like Arizona and Michigan,” GOP strategist Adam Goodman told The Epoch Times.
Goodman is a veteran of four decades of campaigns and is now a Washington-based consultant for the Tampa-based Ballard & Associates. He has been a national political commentator on Fox, CNN, and MSNBC and was the first Edward R. Murrow senior fellow at Tufts University’s Fletcher School of International Relations.
All late Republican money wouldn’t be used for television ads, Goodman said. Much would go to targeting key voter groups digitally. The New York City market, a significant concern for Zeldin, is costly for broadcast television. But Zeldin could put ads on cable television in the suburban counties ringing New York City and upstate.
“He has to maximize in the New York exurbs, and he can afford to do that on cable,” Goodman said.
In Arizona, it will be easier for Lake to use the airwaves if she seeks to, he said.
“The price of admission is less.”
The Phoenix market, specifically communities such as Scottsdale, Tempe, Maricopa, and the Phoenix suburbs generally, are reachable for her, at the very least through digital media and cable television, he said.
“If you can afford a ‘60 Minutes’ spot, great,” Goodman said. “If not, do an aggressive digital media campaign accented by cable. Social media is driving trends more than ever. Trends drive polls, and polls drive political fates.
“The floodgates of Republican money can open up.”
The Dobbs decision by the Supreme Court in June that overturned Roe v. Wade had given Democrats months of momentum to mobilize voters, but its impact seems to be fading, and the momentum has shifted to Republicans.
“Now, the doors are open again. So investment decisions not pondered four weeks ago are now on the hot plate.
“Even in places like New York. Republicans didn’t think Zeldin had any real shot. But he’s got a shot. Tudor Dixon (in Michigan) was trailing in double digits two months ago. Now, she’s got a real shot.”
Another Republican ad man, Robert Aho, concurs.
“I think we’ll continue to see the spending differential narrow as we close in on the election. ... GOP money for advertising typically comes in later compared to Democrat money,” Aho, a Washington strategist whose firm is based in Pittsburgh, told The Epoch Times. “At this point in the races, major money from committees and Super PACs tends to flow where it’s needed—to competitive races.
“I’ve long believed that Democrat donors want to make a point with their donations. Republican donors want a return on investment. A win.”
The parties spend late money in different ways, Neiheisel said. The Democrats favor get-out-the-vote efforts, while Republicans regard that as less consequential for them.
“With a lot of broadcast time locked up this close to the election, they’re limited to what’s available. So they’ll be looking at digital regardless of which side they’re on.”
Aho said late ads could have an effect, and campaign-oriented firms like his can turn them around quickly.
“Firms like mine are built to take what happens in a particular race and turn an ad around, usually within days but sometimes within hours, and get it on the air to drive a particular message and move polling numbers,” he said.
As he spoke, he said he was driving in a rental car from an airport to develop yet another ad in another city.
“Going from one shoot to another shoot. That’s my life right now. I keep a packed suitcase in the trunk of my car. You never know when you’ll need to hop a plane.”
Late ads this year need to begin airing by the Wednesday or Thursday before Election Day to have time to sink in with viewers.
“You can’t put it up on election eve and expect it to saturate. You need time for advertising to burn in. People need to see an ad more than once.”
He acknowledged that early voting had diminished the effect of late-campaign ads.
Neiheisel said politicos have their own secrets and techniques for reaching targeted groups. He’s heard that Cat Fancy, a magazine for cat owners, is “a huge Democratic thing.”
“It’s identifying apartment dwellers, who are more likely to be Democrats. They tend to be transient and younger. If they’re way into cats, it’s a proxy for all things trending Democratic. Including females.”
Goodman suggested a late ad for Georgia Senate candidate Herschel Walker playing to the candidate’s football prowess. This weekend, three days before the election, top-ranked Georgia plays No. 2 Tennessee in one of the biggest games of the year. Goodman proposed a digital ad with Walker, “an absolute undeniable legend,” giving a locker room pep talk to the people of Georgia.
“It would be about how, when the Georgia Bulldogs take the field, not only are they representing the very best in football but the very best in all of us,” Goodman said. “What drives each and every one of us to do everything we can, to put everything on the line for others when it counts. It’s a no-brainer.”
But what if Georgia doesn’t win?
“As insurance, I’d say, ‘It’s not about winning and losing. It’s about whether you’re willing to put everything on the line for others when it counts.'”
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