Formula 1 Heads to the Far East for Three Races

The 2010 Formula 1 season is reaching a nerve-wracking climax, with five races and five drivers close enough in points to win the championship.

Red Bull’s Mark Webber and McLaren’s Lewis Hamilton are definitely the favorites, Webber leads by five points, while Hamilton leads third-place Fernando Alonso by 16.

Webber’s and Hamilton’s teammates Sebastian Vettel and Jenson Button are three and one point behind Ferrari’s Alonso; well within striking distance of the top two should anything befall them on the racetrack.

Assuming the Red Bulls continue to excel at low- and medium-speed bends, the rest of the tracks—save possibly Japan’s Suzuka circuit, which is fast and challenging, and the brand-new Korea which is an unknown, but has a long straight which could favors McLaren—the remaining tracks suit the Red Bull best.

Vettel has won at two of the remaining five tracks: Japan and Abu Dhabi. Webber has won at Brazil, Hamilton and Alonso at Singapore and Japan.

Singapore—Sept. 26

Mark Webber has four wins on the season, more than any other driver, and is heading to a track, the Singapore street circuit, which should suit the Red Bull’s low- and medium-speed cornering prowess (assuming that edge remains after the floor and wing changes Red Bull had to make to meet the new FIA anti-flex requirements.)

If the Red Bull works well, (and given Adrian Newey’s genius, one might expect it would,) Webber should do well here. Vettel might qualify faster, but Webber starts better and is steadier in the races.

Hamilton won here in 2009, but this year’s McLaren’s advantage is top speed, which will not be a big edge on Singapore’s short straight. Also, Singapore is a high-downforce track, not a strong suit for McLaren this year.

As for Ferrari, Alonso won here in 2008 (the infamous Crashgate race,) and the car has been getting better with every race. No one has seen the latest version of the F10 on a handling track; it could well outperform the McLaren.

If Webber were to win Singapore, followed by Alonso, then Hamilton, the points would be Webber 212, Hamilton 197, Alonso 184.

Japan—Oct. 10

The 2010 Japanese Grand Prix will be held on the fast and demanding Suzuka circuit, loved by drivers for its challenging corners linked by long straights. Vettel, Alonso, Button and Hamilton have all won here.

Possibly the McLaren (and Ferrari) speed advantage could be neutralized by the Red Bulls’ grip through The Spoon and Casino Triangle corners, which feed onto the straights.

If a Red Bull makes a good start (that leaves out Vettel) and gets to Turn One first, it might be hard to pass. If Ferrari or McLaren get out first, it might be hard for the Red Bulls to catch them.

The race could come down to driver performance. Whoever can stay calm and still stay fast, at a circuit where a lot of courage is required, could take the win. Can Vettel stay relaxed if he is under pressure? Can Hamilton restrain his “go for it” attitude late in the race (he seems to be better at this lately.)

Assuming the cars are about equal, I like Alonso for this race. If the Red Bulls have an edge, Webber.

Korea—Oct. 24

The 3.5 mile, 18-turn Korean circuit is brand new for 2010 (in fact, it will barely be finished in time for the race.) Assuming the surface holds up, it will be slippery in practice and qualifying, making it doubly hard for drivers to learn the course.

The course has a long and a very long straight, with a very tight and a tight turn at the end of each. Look for this course to eat up brakes.

Besides the straights, the circuit features what look to be flowing medium-speed turns with one tight kink (Turn Ten) which might create some interesting opportunities for cars (Red Bull?) which excel in the corners. This, plus Turns Three and Four, could also be excellent places for banzai-dive-bomb overtaking attempts which leave cars mangled (Mr. Vettel.)

This one is tough to call. Experience and steadiness will play a big part, so Vettel, particularly if he is down on points and feeling desperate, might not be the best pick. Button might be too cautious to make the potentially risky pass in Turn Three.

Korea is a toss-up between Webber, Alonso, and Hamilton, depending on which has the better car on race day. If the McLaren is running well, I’d give Hamilton the edge just because the straight is so long, but if Webber can win the pole (and if the Red Bulls run as well as they did earlier in the season) he might open a gap.

After Asia

After Asia, Formula 1 heads to Brazil, then to Abu Dhabi. Webber won Brazil last year, Vettel, Abu Dhabi. Both Tracks suit the Red Bulls, though Brazil’s Interlagos circuit, which is half high-speed and half-low-speed, could go either way.

McLaren might set up for top speed and sacrifice the infield, or McLaren might figure out a good high-downforce set-up and sacrifice a little top speed, of which it has plenty, to gain an edge in the twisties.

Ferrari should be right at home here, with wins in 2007 and 2008.

Abu Dhabi has a long straight, but with very tight turns at either end and a kink in the middle. Because the track is flat and lack curbs, it is a perfect place for banzai passing maneuvers. If the points chase is close in Abu Dhabi, this could be a very exciting race.

2010 Grand Prix Winners
Grand Prix	Winning Driver	Team
Bahrain	Fernando Alonso	Ferrari
Australia	Jenson Button	McLaren-Mercedes
Malaysia	Sebastian Vettel	RBR-Renault
China	Jenson Button	McLaren-Mercedes
Spain	Mark Webber	RBR-Renault
Monaco	Mark Webber	RBR-Renault
Turkey	Lewis Hamilton	McLaren-Mercedes
Canada	Lewis Hamilton	McLaren-Mercedes
Europe	Sebastian Vettel	RBR-Renault
Great Britain	Mark Webber	RBR-Renault
Germany	Fernando Alonso	Ferrari
Hungary	Mark Webber	RBR-Renault
Belgium	Lewis Hamilton	McLaren-Mercedes
Italy	Fernando Alonso	Ferrari

2010 Constructors Points
	Team	Points
1	RBR-Renault	350
2	McLaren-Mercedes	347
3	Ferrari	290
4	Mercedes GP	158
5	Renault	127
6	Force India-Mercedes	58
7	Williams-Cosworth	47
8	BMW Sauber-Ferrari	27
9	STR-Ferrari	10
10	Lotus-Cosworth	0
11	HRT-Cosworth	0
12	Virgin-Cosworth	0

 

2010 Drivers Points
	Driver	Team	Points
1	Mark Webber	RBR-Renault	187
2	Lewis Hamilton	McLaren-Mercedes	182
3	Fernando Alonso	Ferrari	166
4	Jenson Button	McLaren-Mercedes	165
5	Sebastian Vettel	RBR-Renault	163
6	Felipe Massa	Ferrari	124
7	Nico Rosberg	Mercedes GP	112
8	Robert Kubica	Renault	108
9	Michael Schumacher	Mercedes GP	46
10	Adrian Sutil	Force India-Mercedes	45
11	Rubens Barrichello	Williams-Cosworth	31
12	Kamui Kobayashi	BMW Sauber-Ferrari	21

Wins by Driver
Driver	Team	Wins
Mark Webber	RBR-Renault	4
Fernando Alonso	Ferrari	3
Lewis Hamilton	McLaren-Mercedes	3
Sebastian Vettel	RBR-Renault	2
Jenson Button	McLaren-Mercedes	2