The authoritarian regime in Burma appears to be genuinely seeking peace, democratization, and progress this time. This is the cautiously optimistic message of Ngun Cung “Andrew” Lian, Indiana-based law scholar and former revolutionary fighter in Burma (also called Myanmar). Based on recent conciliatory gestures from the regime, he believes that Burma may indeed be on the road to real change.
The Burmese regime has made several moves recently that indicate that it is serious about moving the country in a more peaceful and democratic direction. A new law allowing workers to strike has been passed, some 200 political prisoners have been released, a massively unpopular dam building project has been scrapped, and it looks like massively popular opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her previously banned National League for Democracy (NLD) party will participate in the upcoming parliamentary by-elections.
Perhaps even more importantly, although it is given much less press in the West, the regime has also held peace talks with representatives of five different armed ethnic groups, and two have informally agreed to a ceasefire.
While it is easy to meet such moves with skepticism based on the poor track record of the extremely authoritarian Burmese regime, and that the current administration is still staffed by former generals, there is a spreading cautious optimism among both Western and Burmese commentators.
Lian, now assistant director of the Center for Constitutional Democracy at Indiana University, says his 20 years of experience of both observing and actively participating in Burma’s affairs tells him that this time the regime is genuinely interested in progress.
“They want change, but they don’t know how to make change,” he said.
Lian said that he found the tone of the Burmese regime lately “striking.” In the talks with the armed ethnics groups lately, Railway Minister Aung Min talked about “everlasting peace,” which is very different from earlier negotiation attempts by then ruling military council, the State Peace and Development Council. The SPDC was officially dissolved on March 30.
Despite the West’s focus on Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi and the plight of political prisoners from Burma’s democratic opposition, the ceasefire between the regime and the armed ethnic groups in regions like Chin, Kachin, and Shan is the most important issue for Burma, Lian said.
“The fighting has made between half a million and a million Burmese into refugees or internally displaced; 1,500 or so political prisoners is a very small issue in comparison.”
However, Lian says the issue of political prisoners is the second most important, as he welcomed the move by Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD to participate in the by-elections.
“They should definitely participate and not keep holding on to the 1990 general election result. She is now in the right time, place, and channel to help Burma toward democracy,” he commented.
In 1990, the NLD won a landslide victory in general elections, but the junta refused to accept the results and instead jailed Suu Kyi, the party’s leader.
The third issue that must be faced is poverty. As long as a majority of the Burmese are living below the poverty line (according to U.S. surveys) it is hard to make changes. Many Burmese are right now less interested in politics and more interested in getting two square meals per day, and are happy as long as they are not starving or getting harassed by the army or military intelligence, Lian says.
He also welcomed the U.S. move to send State Secretary Clinton to Burma in December, and he thinks the West should not miss this opportunity to promote a peaceful transition to real democracy. The Burmese are fed up with the influence of China and India and would rather collaborate with countries that do not have territorial interests in Burma, such as the United States, Australia, Japan, or European countries.
“Honestly speaking, as a native of Burma, the Burmese people generally don’t like the way China influences every aspect of life in Burma,” he said, mentioning how besides financial interest, a lot of Chinese nationals are also bribing their way to get Burmese national ID cards.
“The regime also now realizes that we are living in the 21st century. If we don’t make changes, we will become a puppet country of China or India. That would make the regime lose both legitimacy and national values,” he said.
A crucial, and for some, controversial, issue in Burma’s progress will be reconciliation, says Lian. He is hoping for a South African-style truth and reconciliation commission. The regime will only sacrifice their power for change as long as they are guaranteed that they will not be brought before the International Criminal Court as war criminals, he said. The most important thing should be to focus on a smooth transition to peace and democracy.
“Justice is not a one-way street,” he commented, and added that he hoped that Aung San Suu Kyi would get behind such a solution as well.
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