Former Australian PM Issues Warning to Beijing on Taiwan Issue

Soldiers of The People's Liberation Army (PLA) take part in military exercises after a snowfall on Jan. 24, 2018 in Tianshui, Gansu Province of China. (Getty Images)

Former Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has warned that a war over Taiwan will cripple China’s economy and make it suffer far more than Western countries.

In a speech at the Hudson Institute on Dec. 7, Morrison warned of a “mutually assured destruction” if conflicts break out between Washington and Beijing over Taiwan Strait.

“There is a mutually assured destruction when it comes to questions regarding Taiwan, and I don’t believe everyone is prepared to risk everything in China on that issue,” he said.

Morrison said China “has an enormous amount” to lose if it gets wrong over the Taiwan issue.

“And the appetite for détente could be as much about securing breathing space as it is to avoid conflict,” he said.

The former prime minister and present federal Member for Cook Scott Morrison speaks to the media during a press conference in Sydney, Australia, on Aug. 17, 2022. (AAP Image/Flavio Brancaleone)

Chinese leader Xi Jinping reiterated recently that he would not renounce the use of force on Taiwan, a self-ruled democracy that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has long regarded as a renegade province.

“We will never promise to renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all measures necessary,” Xi said at the opening of the 20th Party Congress, a twice-a-decade-event, on Oct. 16.

Xi also warned President Joe Biden not to cross the red line over Beijing’s claims to Taiwan on the sidelines of the G20 in Bali, Indonesia, last month.

However, Morrison said a war in the Taiwan Strait would cripple China’s economy, for example, by disrupting supply chains and causing financial markets to panic and possibly collapse.

“Supply chains would seize up; financial markets would panic and potentially collapse,” he said.

“We know Chinese ports account for 40 percent of shipping volume in the world’s top 100 ports.

“Six of the largest ships transit through the Taiwan Strait. What would happen to the movement of capital?”

U.S. President Joe Biden (R) and China's leader Xi Jinping (L) meet on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Nusa Dua on the Indonesian resort island of Bali on Nov. 14, 2022. (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)

‘Sanctions would be a Devastation to the Chinese Economy’

The former Prime Minister also mentioned the sanctions that Western countries would impose on China if conflicts broke out.

“The potential impact of sanctions would be a devastation to the Chinese economy and more so than it would be in western countries,” he said.

Morrison called on like-minded countries to work together to protect the world order and increase regional certainty while reducing their dependence on China’s economy.

“Our objective should be to provide an effective counterbalance to avoid conflict, protect interests, and promote stability and improve certainty,” he said.

“We must continue across the western world to reduce our dependency on the Chinese economy. Supply chains, critical technologies, rare earths, critical minerals, trade cooperation—all of these, we must continue to diversify.”

“We must continue to align our resistance to coercion and other aggressive acts in the grey zone.”

The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Kidd and U.S. Coast Guard cutter Munro conduct Taiwan Strait transits on Aug. 27, 2021. (U.S. Navy/Handout via Reuters)

Gen. Angus Campbell, chief of the Australian Defence Force, has also recently warned of a rise in “grey-zone activities” in Indo Pacific region.

“Across our region, large-scale military modernisation is accelerating,” Campbell said ahead of a major defence review, referring to Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea.

“National sovereignty, the law of the sea, freedom of navigation are all facing challenges from both states and non-state actors alike.”

Morrison’s comment comes when the Albanese government is considering restrictions on Chinese investment in the country’s rare-earth industry.

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers has ordered a review committee to be established “to develop more sophisticated methods of tracking investment patterns in critical minerals in the future.”