FOMC Members Raised Recession Odds, Warned ‘Uncertainties’ in Inflation Outlooks, Minutes Reveal

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addresses reporters during a news conference at the Federal Reserve Building in Washington, on Feb. 1, 2023. Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

Minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting revealed that the policy-making arm of the central bank believes the odds of a recession occurring in 2023 are higher.

While inflation is moderating and global economic growth prospects have bolstered market sentiment, there is a growing number of FOMC participants who are anticipating “subdued growth or a mild recession” this year. But there are still “notable uncertainties ahead,” such as the potential for persistent inflation and the possibility of “a deeper downturn.”