FiveThirtyEight’s Senate Midterm Model Favors Republicans for First Time in Months

Election workers wear masks and gloves as they open envelopes containing vote-by-mail ballots for the August 4 Washington state primary at King County Elections in Renton on Aug. 3, 2020. (Jason Redmond/AFP via Getty Images)

Poll aggregator and analytics website FiveThirtyEight’s midterm forecasting model shows Republicans are favorites to take control of the Senate next week.

Since July, the model had favored Democrats to win the upper chamber. The election forecaster has long predicted that the GOP would retake the House.

As of Wednesday, Republicans have a 53 percent chance of taking a majority in the Senate, compared to Democrats’ 47 percent chance, according to the FiveThirtyEight model. In mid-September, FiveThirtyEight’s model showed Democrats had a 71 percent chance of maintaining control of the Senate.

“The Senate is currently a toss-up. The party that wins two of the three closest states will likely win the Senate majority. Republicans’ two best pick-up opportunities are Nevada and Georgia,” it said. “However, Herschel Walker’s scandals may hurt his chances against Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. Meanwhile, Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat in Pennsylvania, but that race has gotten a lot tighter recently.”

Republicans have campaigned by accusing Democrats of favoring policies that bolster inflation and higher energy prices, as well as being weak on crime. Democrats, meanwhile, have focused on abortion after the Supreme Court’s decision to reverse Roe v. Wade over the summer, although many states have laws that allow the procedure.

In a key Senate race between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz, polls have shown that Oz has gained on Fetterman, the Pennsylvania lieutenant governor, after their first and only debate. During that event last week, Fetterman clearly displayed signs of cognitive impairment and was forced to use closed-captioning after he suffered a stroke several months ago.

Speech

Democrats are also leaning into claims that Republicans, which make up roughly half the electorate, pose an existential threat to U.S. institutions. President Joe Biden on Wednesday night will reportedly deliver another address about those alleged threats, coming about two months after he gave a controversial campaign speech while he was flanked by two U.S. Marines.

“You can expect to hear from him this evening … there is a lot at stake including democracy and that everyone has a role in that,” said White House Deputy Chief of Staff and Assistant to the President Jen O’Malley Dillon told Axios on Wednesday. Meanwhile, adviser Anita Dunn, who received criticism for her praising of former Chinese Communist Party dictator Mao Zedong, told the outlet that Biden will give the speech at the U.S. Capitol.

“It is an appropriate place to make these remarks tonight,” she told the outlet. “The threat of political violence ... it’s something that unites almost all Americans and something we can all be united against,” Dunn added.

But Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said in a statement last month that Biden is “completely detached from reality” because “Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, they can’t afford rising gas and grocery prices, and real wages are down.”

Notably, FiveThirtyEight initially incorrectly predicted that Hillary Clinton would defeat then-candidate Donald Trump in 2016. Two days before Election Day in 2016, the website’s editor and founder, Nate Silver, still argued that Clinton would win but the race is closer than what others had predicted.