The Brooklyn Nets are on a five-game winning streak and appear poised to make the playoffs, and win at least a few games in the first-round.
Brooklyn went 21-31 before the All-Star break in February, and was on the fringes of the playoff race in the weaker Eastern Conference. But they’ve gone 13-9 since the break, scoring more points and cutting down on mistakes and bad shots.
What else has changed?
The team’s Big 3 has stepped up since returning from injuries and to the starting lineup. New acquisition Thaddeus Young is much better than the man he replaced, Kevin Garnett. Brooklyn found some much-needed defense in Markel Brown and some much-needed range from Bojan Bogdanovic and Alan Anderson.
Brook Lopez
Lopez’s re-emergence as one of the best offensive centers in the league has been the biggest reason the Nets are winning. He started with the first game back from the break, with 22 points and 14 rebounds in a win over the Lakers.
Lopez had a few quiet games but absolutely went off in March. He dropped 26 points in a stunning win over the Warriors, then scored 24 points or more in six of seven games in the latter part of the month. Brooklyn went 6-1 during those games.
Shot selection has played a big part in Lopez’s recent dominance. In the last eight games, he’s attempting about 18 shots a game--and making about 62 percent of them.
A key difference in his selection is more shots around the bottom half of the key, still inside the paint but not in the restricted area. This is the area he receives a lot of passes when he and Deron Williams or Joe Johnson work a pick and roll.
Lopez’s soft touch enables him to be a threat almost anywhere inside the three-point line, but makes him especially lethal in these types of opportunities. Opposing big men aren’t used to guarding centers that have this kind of range, and Lopez consistently makes them pay. Over the past eight games, Lopez is shooting 50 percent from that area, and well over 50 percent in similar areas on both sides of the basket.
The extra shots closer to the basket are coming as Lopez shoots fewer jump shots outside the key, which has helped boost his almost unbelievable field goal percentage.
Lopez is also shooting much better down low--67.1 percent to 53.8 percent for the rest of the season--largely due to his patience on the block as well as nice set-ups from Williams, Johnson, Jarrett Jack, or Alan Anderson. Lopez shoots much better off assists versus unassisted baskets, and almost all of the assists this season have come from one of these four players.
Williams and Lopez have a particularly potent connection, with Williams assisting Lopez 33 times over the past eight games and 97 times across the entire season. Jack has 69 connections with Lopez over this season, but his playing time has plummeted recently with coach Lionel Hollins relying on Williams more and more. Johnson has 55 assists to Lopez this season, and Anderson has 17.
Patience doesn’t necessarily mean taking a long time, though. Lopez moves surprisingly fast for how tall and big he is, and often catches defenders with his moves. His height also enables him to shoot over almost everyone in the league.
“His touch right now near the basket is off the charts,” Williams told the New York Post recently. “We just need to keep feeding him in pick-and-rolls and exploiting it whenever we have a chance.”
Lopez holds on to the ball for less then two seconds about seven out of every 10 times he touches it, according to statistics from the NBA’s tracking cameras. He almost never holds onto the ball for six or more seconds.
Lopez’s surge has understandably raised more questions about his impending decision--whether or not to opt out of his $16.7 player option for next season. There’s arguments on both sides--if he opts in he gets the chance to take advantage of the higher salaries coming in 2016 with the raised cap, and will also get the chance to prove he’s capable of staying healthy and being a franchise player (he’s currently 27). In addition, his contract could include a no-trade clause.
However, if he opts out he could secure a long-term deal from the Nets or another team this summer, a distinct possibility considering his ongoing injury issues. He couldn’t include the clause, though, since he wouldn’t have enough time in the league to qualify.
Deron Williams
At 30 and after battling a number of injuries, Deron Williams will likely not return to the form that prompted the Nets to first acquire him.
But he’s been very, very good over the past month or so, posting 11.6 points, 6.6 assists, and 3.4 rebounds in March.
It’s almost unthinkable now to most Nets fans that Jack and Mason Plumlee were starting at one point this season even though Lopez and Williams were healthy, although at other times it was because one or the other was injured. Williams missed most of January while Lopez missed eight games in December and played fewer minutes as he sought to return without becoming injured again.
Minutes for both, especially Lopez, have increased as the season has gone on. Lopez has played 38 or more minutes in five of the last eight games, while Williams has hovered around 30 minutes a game recently.
The difference on offense is clear when the pair aren’t on the floor. Jack has earned ire for taking too many shots and not facilitating enough, while Williams is more of a pure point guard who racks up assists when he’s playing well. His string of strong performances has coincided with Lopez and the team’s wins, such as 10 points, 14 assists, and 7 rebounds in a win over the Hornets, 11 points, 8 assists, and 6 rebounds in a win over the Pacers, or 26 points, 7 assists, and 7 rebounds in a win over the Knicks.
Williams is averaging 12 points, 8 assists, and 4.8 rebounds over the last eight games. He’s also cut down on his turnovers, upped his three-point percentage, and recorded more steals.
Williams looks more and more comfortable running the offense--he looked horrible earlier this season--and his connection with Lopez has helped the Nets win some close games. Williams has also been building chemistry with the two new starters, Thaddeus Young and Markel Brown, and has always had a pretty good rapport with Johnson.
Williams strong play also brings more focus on his future. Williams has an outsized contract that gets bigger as time goes on. He'll make $21 million next season, and has a $22.3 million player option for 2016-17. That option, as well as a 15 percent trade kicker, makes him difficult to trade and bring back something of value.
Joe Johnson
Johnson’s clutch shots are another big reason the Nets have won a lot of games lately.
Johnson is the oldest of the Big 3 but continues to stay productive, although he'll never live up to his big contract. Recently he’s proven his worth in a variety of ways, including nailing a crucial 3-pointer in a win over the Cavaliers--in a game he had 20 points, 9 assists, and 5 rebounds--and a huge 3-pointer against the Pacers.
Johnson’s range is so much more important on a team where almost everyone can shoot 3-pointers but no one shoots them particularly well. He regularly shoots well from long range, and has gone 17-for-41 in the last eight games, including 3-for-5 in the win over the Knicks and 4-for-6 in a double overtime win over the Bucks.
Johnson’s improved chemistry with Lopez and Williams has also enabled the Nets to produce more offense, while his ability to shift between forward positions helps space the floor, although he can be a liability on defense.
Unlike the other two Nets stars, Johnson has been consistent for most of the season, and has only missed two games. Johnson is slowly regressing as he ages (he’s 33), indicated in part by the fact that he’s been much better in games after he’s had one or more days of rest, compared to the back end of a back-to-back. In fact, some fans note that Hollins may want to rest Johnson more going into the playoffs.
Johnson provides a crucial second option on offense, able to shoot, penetrate, and post up. When he’s at small forward he often takes advantage of smaller defenders. No Net proved more important in last season’s playoff win over the Raptors.
Johnson lack of speed has forced him to utilize his other abilities, and he shows them off in his array of moves.
Because of a combination of factors including his age and unique abilities, Johnson is perhaps the most likely player out of the Big 3 to be dealt in the offseason or before the deadline next season, when he'll be on the last year of his contract, making $24.8 million.
Young, Brown, and Others
Besides Lopez, Williams, and Johnson, most of the rest of the team has also stepped up lately.
The Nets immediately got better when they traded Kevin Garnett for Thaddeus Young, one of the underrated deals at the deadline this season. Young, who has a $9.7 million player option for next season, fits well with Lopez. He’s energetic and athletic, and thrives off crashing the boards and spacing the floor.
At just 26, Young is still developing his game, seen in part by his increasingly solid three-point shooting. The former first-round pick is shooting a passable 34 percent this season from long range, including 43 percent in 20 games with the Nets. Over a season, that would easily be a career-high.
Brown, a 23-year-old rookie, has been the biggest surprise for Brooklyn. Chained to the bench for a while, he finally got a chance to play earlier this year and has proven his worth.
“I don’t go back and look at why we were losing. All I know is we’re winning now,” Hollins recently told reporters. “That’s because we’re playing much harder — much harder and more together. I can say that from the time we traded for Thaddeus Young, it gave us more versatility and quickness at power forward. Inserting Markel Brown into the starting lineup gave us more quickness and defense. We’ve played better since then.”
Indeed, Brown is playing better and better in his role as defensive stopper and floor-spacer. He needs to improve his shot--he’s shooting just 39 percent from the field in 39 games so far--but has posted some impressive games, including 10 points and 5 rebounds against the Pacers, including going 2-for-4 from long range.
Hollins also complimented Brown’s obvious defensive ability in a radio interview on Thursday. “I think we found our Tony Allen,” he said.
Others on the bench are also stepping up. Alan Anderson and Bojan Bogdanovic provide much-needed shooters, while Anderson is a great cutter and also a defensive force. Plumlee has fallen short of high expectations in his second year but is a strong backup, while rookie Cory Jefferson has shown energy and rebounding in spurts. Jack gets a lot of criticism but is still useful in some situations, and can also knock down clutch shots and free throws.
A core of Lopez, Young, Brown, and Bogdanovic is a big improvement over what the core looked like heading into this season, and that should please Nets fans. After one more season, too, Johnson’s contract will be up and Williams’ will be up or in the last year of his deal. Brooklyn still owes several first-round picks or swaps, but the future is starting to look up, much better than for the faltering Knicks.
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