False Climate Computer Models

A woman stands in front of a model of the Earth holding a thermometer as activists participate in the Global Climate March in Berlin, Germany, on Nov. 29, 2015. (Carsten Koall/Getty Images)

Commentary

Long-term computer modeling (LTCM) is most likely to be predictive in systems that involve a limited number of hard physical science factors. In those areas, the laws of physics are known. Computers can draw straight lines between each known variable, and the final endpoint of the calculation is likely to be true.

LTCM doesn’t work well in complicated organic systems. This predictive value is further decreased when humans are introduced into these organic systems. Envy, greed, power, narcissism, mania, depression, oedipal issues, self-destructive behavior, fear, anxiety, courage, and employment concerns complicate LTCM in human systems.

Examples of the poor predictive value of LTCM in organic systems include:

1. The Stock Market: There are thousands of variables affecting the stock market, including human emotions. No computer system can reliably predict stock market prices. The programmer who solves that problem will be the world’s richest person in short order and will maintain that status. Don’t hold your breath.
2. Human Medicine: Silicon Valley has tried to venture into pharmaceutical development without success. There are too many unknown variables. Also, their “break it then fix it” model doesn’t work with human beings. The Nuremberg Convention, limits on human experimentation, regulatory issues, and liability issues have caused Silicon Valley to put up the white flag. LTCM doesn’t work well in this organic system.
3. Climate: Even short-term computer modeling doesn’t work well in predicting local climate conditions beyond a few weeks’ time. Predicting drought duration, annual rain or snowfall, solar radiation, or even monthly local temperatures 10 years from now isn’t possible. The solar system and Earth’s climate involve too many uncertain variables to make predictions. LTCM doesn’t work in this organic system.
4. Manmade global warming: The solar and earthly organic factors involved in glacial temperature cycling is beyond the ability of LTCM to predict. When will the sun heat up or cool? When will the next glacial cycle begin? How cold and long will the next ice age be? How much of the Earth will be buried under ice? How much will the ocean levels decrease? LTCM provides no reliable, timely, dated answers to these questions. This organic system has too many unknown, interacting, self-correcting variables.

Catastrophic, manmade global warming fantasy computer model predictions are politically driven, manmade myths. These are absolutely not scientific facts. LTCM is not able to accurately predict temperatures 50 or 100 years from now. It’s a myth that man has wasted trillions of dollars pursuing. Hundreds of millions or even billions of people may die due to lack of fresh water, energy, food, transportation, sanitation, uncontrolled flooding, and illness due to LTCM myths about decarbonization and de-industrialization.

Every generation needs “a cause,” a way to “make the world better,” a “big goal.” I suggest that be increasing the world’s fresh water supply by 100 percent. Drinkable, usable fresh water is only 0.4 percent of the water on Earth. Increasing that 0.4 to 0.8 percent of water would produce massively increased plant growth, food supplies, recycling of CO₂ into food, less illness from ingesting contaminated water, and a greener, happier world.

That’s a Big Goal that can be achieved and produce worldwide benefits for animals, plants, and humans.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.