Failed State Index Indicates Why States Fail

The Fund for Peace’s annual Failed State Index measures the stability of 177 countries.
Failed State Index Indicates Why States Fail
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili looks at a scale model of the parliament building in Tbilisi on May 18, 2011. (Vano Shlamov/AFP/Getty Images)
6/20/2011
Updated:
6/20/2011

<a href="https://www.theepochtimes.com/assets/uploads/2015/07/116238340_medium.jpg"><img src="https://www.theepochtimes.com/assets/uploads/2015/07/116238340_medium.jpg" alt="Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili looks at a scale model of the parliament building in Tbilisi on May 18, 2011. (Vano Shlamov/AFP/Getty Images)" title="Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili looks at a scale model of the parliament building in Tbilisi on May 18, 2011. (Vano Shlamov/AFP/Getty Images)" width="320" class="size-medium wp-image-127697"/></a>
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili looks at a scale model of the parliament building in Tbilisi on May 18, 2011. (Vano Shlamov/AFP/Getty Images)

The reasons states fail or flourish cannot be attributed to single factors, but result from the interplay of social, economic, and political factors. Nevertheless, single acute pressure incidents—natural disaster, revolution, and economic crash—can certainly push the scales in favor of a downward spiral of collapse.

The Fund for Peace’s annual Failed State Index, released on Monday, measures the stability of 177 countries by examining social, economic, and political factors. Top ranked on the index are the failed or most unstable states. From worst on up, are Somalia, Chad, Sudan, and Congo. Nations deemed the most stable, hence ranking lowest, from best on down were Finland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and Denmark.

The index measures 12 factors. On the social scale, it looked at pressure on the population—from natural disaster, disease, community factors, access to food/water; presence of refugees or displaced persons; vengeance-seeking groups or historical strife; and brain drain, or loss of the educated class.

Economic factors include uneven economic development and sharp economic decline. Political factors examined include state legitimacy, deterioration of public services, rule of law, covert security operations, elite fragmented by ethnic/religious division, and political/military pressure from neighbors.

In its report, the Fund for Peace points out that all of these dimensions of instability are in fact interdependent. A recent example of exactly how that works is Greece, where overwhelming debt forced the government to implement severe austerity measures, which has led to social and political unrest, and a rapidly declining ability to maintain stability.

Below are some of the highlights from the 2011 Failed State Index.

Most Improved: Georgia

Georgia, now ranks 47 of 177 countries (the higher the number, the more stable), has seen the greatest improvement in stability of any nation this year, jumping from 33rd place in 2009. Fund for Peace says Georgia is benefiting from institutional reform and credits Georgia for getting tough on corruption and making its security apparatus more transparent and accountable. These gains are helping eliminate organized crime, bringing Georgia stability that should last into the future.

“Georgia is on track for continued improvement, by dealing with issues that really matter for national stability,” writes J.J. Messner, senior associate with Fund for Peace.

Although Georgia was previously ranked 60th in 2006, tension with Russia in 2008, including Russia invading with tanks and the internal displacement that brought, lowered the country’s score. With that situation defused and with internal separatists placated for now, Georgia is enjoying a more stable government.

Continued on the next page: Greatest Decline: Haiti

Longest in Worst Spot: Somalia

 

Somalia has held the top spot among failed states four years running.

The somewhat functional autonomous state of Somaliland in the north can not make up for the ineffective government, the lawlessness, terrorism, crime, insurgency, piracy, and failed development that dominate the rest of the country.

The millions of dollars stolen or obtained through ransom by Somali pirates has served to make lawlessness a career path in Somalia, something government funded career training programs have not been able to compete with.

Unfortunately, Somalia is not on a path to improve this status and may remain at the top of the index.

Natural Disasters and Stability

The year 2010 was the most deadly in more than a generation in terms of casualties caused by natural disasters. Blizzards, droughts, floods, heat waves, typhoons, landslides and particularly earthquakes shook the world and killed 290,000 people, while millions more became displaced. This is particularly striking when compared to the 11,000 casualties in 2009.

Although natural disasters are beyond state control, the ability to deal with them is closely linked with the infrastructure of a state. From the Failed States Index it becomes evident that natural disasters are far more damaging for underdeveloped countries in terms of casualties and worsening tensions between groups and strains on supplies.

For example, there were no fatalities as a result of the 7.1 earthquake in New Zealand, Christchurch. Whereas the magnitude 7.0 earthquake that hit Haiti caused the deaths of between 80,000 and 300,000. This clearly shows that a country’s infrastructure is a critical factor in mitigating the ultimate loss.

Greatest Decline: Haiti

<a href="https://www.theepochtimes.com/assets/uploads/2015/07/110479042_Haiti_Failed_medium.jpg"><img src="https://www.theepochtimes.com/assets/uploads/2015/07/110479042_Haiti_Failed_medium.jpg" alt="STATE IN SHAMBLES: The ruins of the presidential palace of Haiti remain a stark reminder of the still dysfunctional state of the country's government a year and a half after the Jan. 12, 2010, earthquake. (Hector Retamal/AFP/Getty Images)" title="STATE IN SHAMBLES: The ruins of the presidential palace of Haiti remain a stark reminder of the still dysfunctional state of the country's government a year and a half after the Jan. 12, 2010, earthquake. (Hector Retamal/AFP/Getty Images)" width="320" class="size-medium wp-image-127698"/></a>
STATE IN SHAMBLES: The ruins of the presidential palace of Haiti remain a stark reminder of the still dysfunctional state of the country's government a year and a half after the Jan. 12, 2010, earthquake. (Hector Retamal/AFP/Getty Images)
Haiti for years ranked high on the Failed States Index, but this year obtained the dubious honor of being “most-worsened state for 2011.” The 2010 earthquake caused the impoverished nation to shoot from being ranked 11th in 2010, to 5th worst on the 2011 Index.

The country’s demographic pressures increased to a maximum of 10 points, while its refugee and internally displaced person score nearly doubled. In spite of getting good marks on external intervention indicator, which rose as the international community reacted swiftly to the scenes of destruction and human suffering caused by the earthquake, Haiti is essentially still a disaster.

Since the establishment of the Failed States Index in 2005, Haiti has never done better than ranking in the top 15 “worst states” and is unlikely to crawl out of it any time soon.

Assessment of the United States

The United States ranks 158 of 177 countries on the index and was categorized as “moderate to sustainable,” the second best category. Of the 19 nations that rank ahead of the United States most are European with the exceptions of Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan.

The biggest factors contributing to American instability were economic. The decline in the economy, failure of businesses, and the growth of the debt all contribute to the ranking. In addition, of all developed nations in the top 25 of the index, the United States has the highest score, hence lowest ranking, for economic disparity, or “group-based inequality” and poverty.

On the promising side of the scale, the United States did well in terms of “brain drain,” or loss of the educated class. Yet the concentration of highly educated may also be contributing to economic disparity in the nation.

Another area where the U.S. rating suffers is “fragmentation of the elite.” This can be seen in the polarization of U.S. national politics and is measured by the Fund for Peace as, “Absence of legitimate leadership widely accepted as representing the entire citizenry.”