Extensive Home-Heating Electrification Sparked Rolling Blackouts in California and Other States: IER

An aircraft takes off from Los Angeles International Airport behind electric power lines in El Segundo, Calif., on Aug. 31, 2022. (Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images)

The rising trend of electrifying home-heating systems triggered rolling blackouts in late December’s winter storm, mainly in states such as North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and California, according to the Institute for Energy Research (IER).

Electrification policies pursued by President Joe Biden and other Democrats like California Governor Gavin Newsom aim to make the U.S. electric grid carbon-free. This was a main cause of the recent rolling blackouts and outages in California and the U.S. South during the holidays, a Jan. 6th article by IER argues.

The hardest-hit states in the winter storm were those found to have “significantly increased” their reliance on electricity to heat homes over the past decade. This shift puts more strain on the power grid when temperatures decline.

Between 2009 and 2020, the number of homes using electric heat in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee rose by roughly 20 percent.

During this period, the generating capacity of power plants in these states has remained relatively flat and is increasingly more reliant on renewable energy. As the recent winter storm rolled in, electricity demand exceeded supply, which caused rolling blackouts.

The federal government and several state governments are pushing renewable energies based on wind and solar power on grid operators. These technologies “cannot be called upon” to supply reliable power when critically required, like during heat waves and cold spells, the article stated.

“Rolling blackouts are a consequence of climate policy that forces more unreliable power sources on the electric grid and prohibits the expansion of firm power from fossil energy technologies. Reports indicate that increased focus on renewable energy has diverted resources and focus away from shoring up the existing grid to ensure safety, security, and reliability.”

Affected States

On Dec. 23 and 24, the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) had to institute rotating outages. Electricity consumption patterns in the state have been altered due to the electrification of heating as well as household appliances.

In some regions, electricity demand now peaks during both winter and summer. In the past, demand used to peak only during summer when air-conditioners were used but not during winter, when home heating was dependent on oil or gas. Though electric heating demand has risen, the total power generation in the state largely remained unchanged.

In North and South Carolina, the number of states reliant on electric heating jumped 5 percent between 2009 and 2020, while the total power supplies grew by only 2 percent, with gas and solar replacing coal. The increased focus on renewable energy is believed to have diverted resources away from the existing grid.

“A study from the North American Electric Reliability Cooperation found that if the power grid becomes dependent on solar and wind, a simple chain of cloudy days could turn the power off for thousands of homes. An extreme cold snap or increased demand like the one over the Christmas holiday would wreak havoc,” the IER said.

In California, more than 130,000 utility customers were without power on New Year’s Day. In 2021, non-hydroelectric renewable energy accounted for 35 percent of the state’s power generation.

California, which has been pushing renewable energy adoption for decades, does not have the flexibility to add “firm power” during heat waves and outages, it noted. Firm power refers to the guaranteed power provided by a power plant or transmission system.

The Danger of Mass Electrification

Jim Robb, president and CEO of North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NAERC), warned last month that the electrification of the American economy would increase the risks of energy shortages at a time when the electric grid is already constrained.

“As we electrify more aspects of our lives, including space heating, including transportation, in addition to everything that is already electrified, our tolerance for reliability issues and energy shortfalls is going to decline very quickly to zero or near zero,” he said, according to S&P Global.

As such, the reliability requirement and stresses on the grid are going to rise, Robb added. However, he does not expect this to happen overnight. Electrifying the economy will push demand up dramatically from what it is now. It will, however, take a long time to build the infrastructure needed to support it, he noted.