According to Amnesty International, “Egypt has remained under a continuous state of emergency for almost 30 years, since 1981,” when Housni Mubarak assumed the presidency after the assassination of Anwar Sadat. Since then, Mubarak has been confirmed by popular referendum for four six-year terms.
In a report released on Nov. 21, Amnesty says the regime has recently embarked on a fresh round of restrictions on freedoms of expression, association, and assembly of political opposition activists. Many abuses have been documented.
The U.S. government called upon the Egyptian regime last week to ensure free and transparent elections, including “peaceful political assemblies throughout the campaign, civil society organizations freely promoting voter education and participation, and an open media environment that offers balanced coverage for all candidates,” said State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley in a written statement published Nov. 15.
“In addition, an open electoral process would include a credible and impartial mechanism for reviewing election-related complaints, a domestic election observation effort according to international standards, and the presence of international observers.”
Finding the Balance
The White House sees Egypt as essential to stability in the Middle East. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton described the relationship between the two countries as a “cornerstone of stability and security in the Middle East and beyond,” during a press conference with Egypt’s Foreign minister earlier this month.
Therein lies the problem for the United States in espousing open elections. One of the most powerful opposition groups to Mubarak’s regime is the Muslim Brotherhood, a popular Islamist movement, that does not use violent tactics itself, but is the parent-movement of violent Islamist movements in the Middle East like Hamas. If the Muslim Brotherhood ascends to power in Egypt it would have major regional consequences. Among other things, they have repeatedly said they will terminate the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty from 1979.
The last elections for Egyptian Parliament, the People’s Assembly, were in 2005. Members representing the Muslim Brotherhood, who ran as independents because of restrictions on the movement, scored a major victory winning 88 seats, thus forming the largest opposition group. The assembly sits for a five-year term, but can be dissolved earlier by the president.
In the last few years, the Egyptian regime has implemented some constitutional mechanisms to prevent the Muslim Brotherhood and other opposition groups from gaining power, including a ban on any religious political parties or restrictions on religious political activities, which makes it hard for Brotherhood candidates to run even as independents this time around.
A Muslim Brotherhood lawyer, Abdel Monem Abdel Maqsoud, stressed in a press report on the official Muslim Brotherhood website that the current clampdown against the group’s candidates and their supporters has noticeably increased during the past few days with a total of 1,206 member being detained since the group announced it would participate in the elections. To date, 702 detainees from 22 governorates have been brought before a prosecutor.
In addition to suppressing the Brotherhood, the regime is also trying to block liberal opposition, suppressing freedom of expression. According to the Committee to Protect Journalist, there has been an increased clampdown on freedom of expression during the runup to the election, including the shooting of an editor-in-chief of an independent newspaper. Internet Bloggers are also subject to suppression.
In a semi-formal response, the Egyptian regime rejected the called for free elections. An Egyptian Foreign Ministry official quoted anonymously but in a report appearing on the ruling National Democratic Party’s (NDP) website, referred to U.S. statements regarding fair elections as “interference” in local politics.
“Egypt is proud of its national will, its sovereignty, and independence. Any foreign power, including the United States, is not allowed to poke a nose into its affairs,” the official reportedly said.
Next week’s parliamentary elections may also be an indication of what’s to come.
“The elections are a dress rehearsal for what will happen next year during the presidential contest,” said Dina Guirguis, and Egypt scholar from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Guirguis added that the possibility of transition of leadership after 30 years of president Housni Mubarak’s rule gives these elections special significance.
The strategies the ruling party might take to block the opposition now, are an indicator for what might be expected next year, she added.
“For an independent candidate to have a great deal of support within the newly elected parliament is something the NDP will likely not allow to happen. Their continued dominance is important in order to close the route for an independent candidates next year,” Guirguis said.
Guirguis is not optimistic about outcome if the United States continues to support Arab dictators, even traditional allies of the U.S. government. She says the policy “is not paying off.”
“There is a sense that the continuation of the status quo is yielding greater instability, is yielding greater resentment toward the United States and its allies, by the Arab peoples,” she said, adding that at least according to the current rhetoric of the Obama administration, there seems to be a shift toward the idea that stable, pluralistic, and democratic societies will ultimately become U.S. allies.
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