The U.S. economy has moved according to a set cycle for close to 200 years, and experts warn that if this pattern continues, we can expect another financial crisis starting this year, which will peak in 2019.
One of the first warnings of the last financial crisis came from U.K.-based economist and director of the Land Research Trust, Fred Harrison. He began warning of the trends in 1997, and in April 2005 warned that the property boom would only last for another three years before it would crash in 2008.
He went on record and told then-U.K Prime Minister Tony Blair about the looming crash. He also turned to the press and presented his data showing the trends. But he, like many others who came to similar conclusions, was ignored until the crisis came to pass.
Now, Harrison is again warning of a coming crash, and his predictions are again proving true. Just last year, he warned of the economic woes that have started rearing their heads in 2016.
The problem, he said, is the economy rises and falls like clockwork.
“We know that for centuries, the land value cycle has operated on an 18-year basis,” Harrison said in a phone interview. “The fact is, there is a very clear 18-year pattern, which is always intersected with a mid-term recession.”
Amar Manzoor, author of “The Art of Industrial Warfare“ and creator of the 7Tao training system for manufacturing standards, has come to the same conclusion. He said in a phone interview, ”This 18-year cycle has resulted in the massive decline of industry and has been the Achilles heel in the performance of Western economies.”
Steve Hanke of the Cato Institute, a think tank, noted the same pattern in a February 2010 report. He said the problem rests in the land-value cycle, which has a domino effect on the construction cycle, the business cycle, and then the overall economy.
“With the exception of World War II, the peak of most real estate cycles is roughly every 18 years,” Hanke wrote. He shows this has remained mostly consistent over the last 200 years with land value peaks in 1818, 1836, 1854, 1872, 1890, 1907, 1925, 1973, 1979, 1989, and 2006.
