WASHINGTON—A record number of Americans have voted ahead of Election Day, driven by soaring turnout from Latino voters. That could be good news for Hillary Clinton.
At least 43.2 million people have cast ballots by early voting—by mail or at polling stations, according to Associated Press data. Record levels have been reported in 23 states and the District of Columbia. Millions more ballots are still coming in.
The AP estimates that early votes could top 50 million. That comes to nearly 40 percent of all ballots in a presidential election expected to have high turnout overall due to intense public interest. In 2012, there were 46 million early votes, or 35 percent.
“Interest in early voting has been unprecedented in many states,” said Michael McDonald, a University of Florida professor and expert on voter turnout who is a consultant to AP.
The latest numbers show declines in voting from blacks in North Carolina—a drop-off after historic levels for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. But higher turnout by Latinos, who often lean Democratic, may be buoying Clinton in Florida. Both are must-win states for Donald Trump.
The Hispanic vote is also surging in Nevada and Colorado, where Democrats are running near or above their successful 2012 pace. Trump could be holding an edge in Ohio and Iowa, but that won’t be enough if Latinos drive Clinton to victories in other battleground states.
A look at early voting trends:
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TOP BATTLEGROUNDS: FLORIDA, NORTH CAROLINA
Trump’s campaign acknowledges he can’t win without Florida and North Carolina.
In Florida, a record 6.4 million early ballots are already in, or more than three-fourths of the expected vote. Democrats are ahead, 39.9 percent to 38.5 percent. Democrats had slightly wider margins in 2008 and 2012. Obama narrowly won the state both years.
