As the calendar rolls into August, the baseball season finds itself in its final third. As we look at the pennant races, some divisions are on their way to wrapping up while others are still wide open. History can shed some light on why some divisions may be all wrapped up by August 1.
The AL East is witnessing another see-saw battle between the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees. While the Red Sox went through a rough re-start after the All-Star break, the Yankees took advantage and made up enough ground to start the month on top.
The Yankees–Red Sox rivalry, arguably one of the best in the sport, will play out 10 more times before the season is out. The drama of a tight division race should add to the already intense atmosphere for those games.
The AL Central has three teams in close contention, with the Detroit Tigers starting the month off on top. The Chicago White Sox and the Minnesota Twins are within three games of the pennant.
These teams will see each other at least six more times this season, with the Tigers and the White Sox facing off for the final three games of the season. Expect this division to come down to the final games of the season.
The NL Central is the tightest division in baseball. The rivals Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals swap the top spot every few days. The Houston Astros and Milwaukee Brewers are not to be counted out either, as they sit within five of the Cubs and Cardinals.
The Cubs, Cardinals, and Astros all have one more series against each other before the season concludes.
The other divisions feature leaders with leads of roughly five or more games.
Since 1970, there have only been six seasons where the all the division leaders as of August 1 went on to win the pennant. This anomaly was last seen in 1998, but during the 70s it occurred four times.
Cleary with tight divisional races in three divisions, it appears highly unlikely that we’ll see a repeat of 1998.
Most people believe that the Dodgers have the NL West wrapped up. With a comfortable seven game lead over Colorado to start the month of August, the pennant is theirs to lose. In fact, 94 percent of teams that led their divisions by seven or more games since 1970 (an arbitrary boundary on recent history) went on to win the pennant.
While the overwhelming majority of the time, teams with a seven or more game lead on August 1 went on to clinch the division, there have been a handful of occasions where those teams have fizzled to finish the season. This six percent brings out some great baseball stories.
The last example was in 2006 when the Detroit Tigers were leading the AL Central by 7.5 games over the Chicago White Sox on August 1.
By season’s end on October 2, the Minnesota Twins, who had been 9.5 games back, clinched the division by one game.
The Tigers did win the wildcard though. They made it all the way to the World Series before losing to the Cardinals in five.
In 1993, the San Francisco Giants lead the NL West by 7.5 games over the Atlanta Braves to open the month of August. On the final day of the season, October 3, the Braves beat Colorado 5–3 and the Giants lost to the Dodgers 12–1, giving the Braves the pennant.
The1993 season was the final season before the introduction of the wildcard and the Central divisions. San Francisco would have clinched the NL wildcard—had one been available.
In 1995, the California Angels held an astounding 11-game lead over Texas and 12 games over Seattle on August 1. Seattle beat California in a tiebreaker game 9–1 on October 2 to clinch the division, eliminating the Angels from playoff contention.
After their miraculous 2007 season, it is hard to count out the Colorado Rockies. Most have them winning the wildcard and the Dodgers winning the division, but to quote coach Lee Corso, “Not so fast my friend!”
The Rockies have been on fire since they hired Manager Jim Tracy on May 29. Tracy’s Rockies have gone 40–19 since his hiring including going 11–6 since the All-Star break.
They were 14.5 games behind the red hot Dodgers on June 6, but start off August only seven games back.
Even with Manny back in the line-up, the Dodgers have been mediocre since the All-Star break.
Circle October 2–4 on your calendar when the Rockies visit the Dodgers to close out the season with a three-game series. At the rate the two teams are heading, we could be adding to that six percent!
The AL East is witnessing another see-saw battle between the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees. While the Red Sox went through a rough re-start after the All-Star break, the Yankees took advantage and made up enough ground to start the month on top.
The Yankees–Red Sox rivalry, arguably one of the best in the sport, will play out 10 more times before the season is out. The drama of a tight division race should add to the already intense atmosphere for those games.
The AL Central has three teams in close contention, with the Detroit Tigers starting the month off on top. The Chicago White Sox and the Minnesota Twins are within three games of the pennant.
These teams will see each other at least six more times this season, with the Tigers and the White Sox facing off for the final three games of the season. Expect this division to come down to the final games of the season.
The NL Central is the tightest division in baseball. The rivals Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals swap the top spot every few days. The Houston Astros and Milwaukee Brewers are not to be counted out either, as they sit within five of the Cubs and Cardinals.
The Cubs, Cardinals, and Astros all have one more series against each other before the season concludes.
Big Leads Pretty Secure
The other divisions feature leaders with leads of roughly five or more games.
Since 1970, there have only been six seasons where the all the division leaders as of August 1 went on to win the pennant. This anomaly was last seen in 1998, but during the 70s it occurred four times.
Cleary with tight divisional races in three divisions, it appears highly unlikely that we’ll see a repeat of 1998.
Most people believe that the Dodgers have the NL West wrapped up. With a comfortable seven game lead over Colorado to start the month of August, the pennant is theirs to lose. In fact, 94 percent of teams that led their divisions by seven or more games since 1970 (an arbitrary boundary on recent history) went on to win the pennant.
While the overwhelming majority of the time, teams with a seven or more game lead on August 1 went on to clinch the division, there have been a handful of occasions where those teams have fizzled to finish the season. This six percent brings out some great baseball stories.
The last example was in 2006 when the Detroit Tigers were leading the AL Central by 7.5 games over the Chicago White Sox on August 1.
By season’s end on October 2, the Minnesota Twins, who had been 9.5 games back, clinched the division by one game.
The Tigers did win the wildcard though. They made it all the way to the World Series before losing to the Cardinals in five.
In 1993, the San Francisco Giants lead the NL West by 7.5 games over the Atlanta Braves to open the month of August. On the final day of the season, October 3, the Braves beat Colorado 5–3 and the Giants lost to the Dodgers 12–1, giving the Braves the pennant.
The1993 season was the final season before the introduction of the wildcard and the Central divisions. San Francisco would have clinched the NL wildcard—had one been available.
In 1995, the California Angels held an astounding 11-game lead over Texas and 12 games over Seattle on August 1. Seattle beat California in a tiebreaker game 9–1 on October 2 to clinch the division, eliminating the Angels from playoff contention.
Rockies
After their miraculous 2007 season, it is hard to count out the Colorado Rockies. Most have them winning the wildcard and the Dodgers winning the division, but to quote coach Lee Corso, “Not so fast my friend!”
The Rockies have been on fire since they hired Manager Jim Tracy on May 29. Tracy’s Rockies have gone 40–19 since his hiring including going 11–6 since the All-Star break.
They were 14.5 games behind the red hot Dodgers on June 6, but start off August only seven games back.
Even with Manny back in the line-up, the Dodgers have been mediocre since the All-Star break.
Circle October 2–4 on your calendar when the Rockies visit the Dodgers to close out the season with a three-game series. At the rate the two teams are heading, we could be adding to that six percent!
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