Some Democrat strategists have expressed alarm by recent Republican gains and warned incumbent Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul could be defeated next week.
New York has not elected a Republican candidate for governor in decades. An aggregate of polls from RealClearPolitics shows that Hochul’s alleged lead over Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) has shrunk in recent weeks, coming as Zeldin has repeatedly targeted Hochul and Democrats for what he said are their soft-on-crime policies—prompting Hochul to declare herself the “underdog” in the race last week.
He added: “People think crime is out of control. … most Democrats have combated that with stats showing that in fact that is not, but if people don’t feel physically safe or economically secure you can’t show them stats to talk their way out of it.”
Meanwhile, Hochul became governor after Cuomo resigned last year amid several scandals, meaning that she’s running for her first term as governor. She won her primary against New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams and Rep. Thomas Suozzi (D-N.Y.) in the state’s primary.
“The numbers are such where as long as Democrats go out and vote, they’re going to win the election. But they have to actually go and do that,” said Democratic strategist Chris Coffey about the state’s electorate. “And that has been the challenge for the Hochul campaign, has been motivating people and reminding them that they could actually lose and that they need people to turn out and vote.”
During their first and only debate, Zeldin targeted Hochul for embracing bail reform policies that Republicans and law enforcement groups say have led to a spike in violent crime in recent years. At one point, when Zeldin said he believes a crime emergency should be declared in the state, Hochul replied: “I don’t know why that’s so important to you.”
“Anyone who commits a crime under our laws, especially with the change we made to bail, has consequences. I don’t know why that’s so important to you,” Hochul also said. “All I know is that we can do more.”
And Hochul, in the debate, often tied Zeldin to former President Donald Trump and the Jan. 6, 2021, breach at the U.S. Capitol. Her statements mirrored a tactic that has been embraced by national Democrats, including President Joe Biden, that Republicans are an extremist party.
But, as pollster Mark Penn wrote for the New York Times Monday: “the story of the 2022 election could be that Democrats overestimated how much voters cared about the events of Jan. 6 and the ties to Donald Trump of Republicans like Mr. Zeldin.
“In fact, by constructing a campaign around those concerns—and not the threats posed by crime, inflation and immigration—Ms. Hochul and other Democrats nationwide are at real risk of not facing up to the mood of the electorate at a time of pressure and fear.”
A spokesperson for Hochul’s campaign said that voters in New York City will likely tip the race in her favor on Nov. 8.
“Across the five boroughs, Governor Hochul has built a broad coalition of supporters because of her effective leadership and ability to get things done,” Jen Goodman, a Hochul spokeswoman, told news outlets this week. “Democrats across the city are fired up, and from now until Election Day the campaign will continue to keep our foot on the gas reaching out to voters in every community and exposing Lee Zeldin’s dangerous extremism.”
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