Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (C) attends a meeting with U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on July 18, 2023. (Florence Lo/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)
Chinese leader Xi Jinping introduced a new foreign policy strategy in 2018 called the “great power diplomacy.” But after five years, Beijing’s diplomacy is in disarray, with the U.S.-China relationship and the Belt and Road Initiative in trouble, and power struggles within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) brought further instability to the regime’s foreign policy, according to experts.
CCP’s ‘Great Power Diplomacy’ in Turmoil
The Chinese leader was absent from the recent G20 summit in New Delhi, India. Instead, Mr. Xi assigned Premier Li Qiang to attend the international summit in his place. Some political analysts suggest that Mr. Xi’s absence from this important event was due to the unstable domestic political situation.
China observer Wang He told The Epoch Times on Sept. 13 that “Xi Jinping traveled abroad an average of 14 times a year before COVID-19 first broke out in China in late 2019. However, since Xi Jinping was ‘reelected’ earlier this year, the situation has reversed abruptly, and he doesn’t dare travel abroad unless it’s essential. In fact, his focus on domestic politics far exceeds his focus on diplomacy, which is an embarrassing political situation for him.”
China political commentator Zhang Tianliang told The Epoch Times on Sept. 13 that the CCP’s failures allowed the United States to have a head start in diplomacy.
“Firstly, the United States and Vietnam established a strategic partnership at the highest level. Secondly, the United States, the European Union, the Arab countries, and Israel joined hands to establish a new version of the Belt and Road Initiative, which drew closer the relationship between Europe, the Middle East, and India. Thirdly, in the Global South, which includes the CCP’s important interests in Africa, India emerged as a new leader and role model,” Mr. Zhang said.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (R), U.S. President Joe Biden (C), German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (3R), and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (3L), along with world leaders, arrive to pay respect at the Mahatma Gandhi Memorial at Raj Ghat on the sidelines of the G20 summit in New Delhi on Sept. 10, 2023. (Ludovic Marin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)
At the G20 summit, U.S. President Joe Biden, along with the leaders of India, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, France, Germany, Italy, and the European Union, launched the European and American version of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which U.S. officials called the “modern-day Spice Route.“ The initiative involves building an India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). All participating countries will meet within 60 days to develop an action plan and timeline.
Mr. Zhang believes this is a crucial step to weaken the influence of the CCP in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
“In the past, the CCP has used the Belt and Road Initiative to export its ideology and realize its control over countries in Central Asia, the Middle East, and the Indian subcontinent. Now, this European and American version of the Belt and Road Initiative is a counterbalance to the CCP, and it has chosen to compete in infrastructure, an area that China specializes in,” he said.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni also took the opportunity at the G20 summit to tell Chinese Premier Li Qiang that Italy is considering withdrawing from the BRI.
The CCP has spent $1 trillion on its BRI, and experts say this pillar of China’s “great power diplomacy” is now in a severe crisis.
U.S.-China relations are another core pillar of the CCP’s “great power diplomacy.” Still, the confrontation between the two countries is on the rise, with the U.S. building a blockade against the Chinese regime in technology, trade, human rights, and geopolitics. Most recently, after the U.S. government launched an investigation into Huawei’s cellphone chips, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson sharply criticized the United States at a press briefing on Sept. 8.
Historically, after the CCP proposed the “reform and opening-up“ economic policies, successive administrations have regarded relations with the United States as one of their top diplomatic priorities. Former CCP leader Deng Xiaoping, the driving force behind ”reform and opening up,“ once said, ”After World War II, countries that followed the Soviet Union turned out poor, and those that followed the United States became wealthy.”
Before the G20 summit, Beijing released the “2023 Edition of the Standard Map of China.” The new map includes Taiwan, the islands in the South China Sea, and the disputed areas along the China-India border. This sparked criticisms from Taiwan, other countries with territorial claims of the South China Sea, and India. The United States pushed back against the CCP’s “false maritime claims.”
CCP’s Internal Struggles
Conflict between political factions has exacerbated the CCP’s diplomatic failures, experts say.
For example, former Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, a close confidant of Mr. Xi, was suddenly removed from his post at the end of July. New uncertainties arose on whether Mr. Xi will attend the APEC summit in San Francisco in November and meet with President Biden.
Former Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang (2nd R) and China's Ambassador to the Philippines Huang Xilian (R) attend a meeting with Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo at the Diamond Hotel in Metro Manila on April 22, 2023. (Gerard Carreon/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)
Political commentator Mr. Wang He believes Mr. Xi is aware that his political opponents within the foreign ministry took down Mr. Qin.
CCP Politburo member Wang Yi seems to have won an internal battle to replace Mr. Qin, but his situation does not seem very optimistic either, according to Mr. Wang He.
According to the Chinese language edition of The Wall Street Journal, it was rumored that Mr. Wang Yi was supposed to attend the United Nations General Assembly meeting this month but Mr. Xi had sent Chinese Vice President Han Zheng instead.
Mr. Wang He believes Mr. Xi doesn’t trust the foreign ministry since the forces behind Mr. Wang Yi got rid of Mr. Xi’s protégé, Mr. Qin. Mr. Wang Yi is reportedly pro-Russia and more hawkish toward the United States than his predecessor. Despite the deterioration of relations between China and the United States, Mr. Xi is probably unwilling to immediately adopt an aggressive foreign policy toward the United States, said Mr. Wang He.
The China observer believes that Mr. Xi’s control over the foreign ministry is still limited, as his so-called sweeping anti-corruption campaign has left the ministry unscathed.
