Sudden Dismissal of China’s Foreign Minister Shows Cracks in Xi’s Grip on Power: Analysts

China's Foreign Minister Qin Gang attends a press conference at the Media Center of the National People's Congress (NPC) in Beijing on March 7, 2023. (Noel Celis/AFP via Getty Images)

The Chinese regime remains tight-lipped on the reasons for removing foreign minister Qin Gang on Wednesday. Analysts say the silence speaks volumes about the intense power struggle under Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s tight grip.

Considered Mr. Xi’s protégé, Mr. Qin once enjoyed a meteoric rise.

With a leadership reshuffle during the major party congress last October, Mr. Qin, who was serving as the ambassador to Wahington at that time, was elevated to a full member of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) Central Committee. His processors often gained promotion to the CCP’s top leadership body only after holding alternate memberships.

Mr. Qin was transferred back to Beijing and elevated to foreign minister last December. At the age of 56, he became one of the youngest officials to take over that minitrial position. In March, Mr. Qin was named as a councilor to the State Council, a cabinet-like administrative authority.

However, following a month-long unexplained absence from public view, Mr. Qin was abruptly removed from his position on Tuesday. With only seven months in office, Mr. Qin became the regime’s shortest-serving foreign minister.

Political Misstep?

Tuesday’s announcement provided no answer to Mr. Qin’s mysterious absence. The last time Mr. Qin was seen in state media was on June 25 when he welcomed the visiting diplomats from Russia, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam. Since then, he has skipped several major events, including the gathering of foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Indonesia earlier this month.

Wang Wenbin, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson, previously attributed Mr. Qin’s absence to “health reasons.”

But the official explanation didn’t clam rumors. Hong Kong and Taiwan media reports suggested the reason may be an extramarital affair with Chinese television anchor Fu Xiaotian.

That speculation was dismissed by political analysts, who said extramarital relationships are often used as a pretext for the Party elites to remove opponents. Instead, they pointed to political missteps and power struggles, especially top diplomat Wang Yi’s dissatisfaction with Mr. Qin’s work.

“It should be significant political missteps, or more likely, some events relating to intelligence. It must be a serious problem so that they can force Xi Jinping [to remove Qin,]” said Chen Weijian, a Chinese commentator and chief editor of Beijing Spring magazine.

“But what exactly is the problem? Currently, it’s not very clear.”

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (L) walks with China's Foreign Minister Qin Gang (R) ahead of a meeting at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing on June 18, 2023. (Leah Millis/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

At Wednesday’s briefing, reporters asked whether Mr. Qin was under a corruption probe.

“I have no information to offer,” foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning replied.

On the foreign ministry’s website, all mention of Mr. Qin, including his biography and summaries of meetings he attended, have been erased. A search for his name on the official page yielded no results by Wednesday.

“The information on the Foreign Ministry’s website is being updated according to relevant regulations,” Ms. Mao told reporters.

Power Struggle?

Chen Yonglin (not related), a former Chinese diplomat who defected to Australia in 2005, said Mr. Qin’s exit appears to be a result of power struggles.

He pointed to Mr. Qin’s retention of his role as state councilor.

According to state broadcaster CCTV, the decision adopted by Tuesday’s meeting of the rubber-stamp legislature is to “remove Qin Gang‘s concurrent post of foreign minister.” The announcement didn’t mention any changes to Mr. Qin’s status as state councilor.

As of Wednesday, Mr. Qin continues to hold his party role and the senior government position as a state councilor on the central authorities’ website.

“If Qin Gang was removed from all of his roles … it means he made big mistakes. Now, Qin was only removed from the foreign minister’s post, suggesting [Xi] was to solve the power struggle within the foreign ministry,” said Mr. Chen.

Mr. Qin’s rapid rise to high office, which was largely linked to the support from Mr. Xi, provoked envy in the foreign ministry, according to Mr. Chen.

“Many seasoned vice ministers don’t like Qin Gang,” Mr. Chen said. “He is too young.”

China's newly appointed Foreign Minister Wang Yi attends a meeting with his Turkish counterpart in Ankara on July 26, 2023. (-/AFP via Getty Images)

Losing Face?

The Chinese regime said Mr. Qin’s position was taken by Mr. Wang, who had served as the foreign minister for nearly a decade before being appointed to the CCP’s Foreign Affairs Commission.

Observers interpreted the return of Mr. Wang, 69, as a transitional arrangement, given that his age has surpassed the informal retirement age of 68 and that his current position is outranked ministerial post.

“It’s simply an interim arrangement to stabilize the situation within the foreign ministry,” said Ding Shu-fan, a researcher at the Center for International Relations at National Chengchi University in Taiwan.

The reappointment of Mr. Wang will buy the CCP’s leadership more time to pick a new foreign minister, Mr. Ding said. According to his prediction, a formal decision is likely to be announced next spring.

For now, analysts are not optimistic about Mr. Qin’s political future.

“I think he is over,” said Mr. Ding.

The fact that state media has been tight-lipped about Mr. Qin’s whereabouts indicates he may step out of line politically, Mr. Ding explained. The Chinese leadership will remove Mr. Qin’s title of State Councilor at next year’s National People’s Congress, he added.

Mr. Chen Yonglin agreed.

“They may remove his tile of state councilor quietly,” Mr. Chen said, adding such measures could make Mr. Xi less embarrassing.

But finally, “this episode has caused Xi Jinping to lose face.”

Luo Ya contributed to this report.