After China recently increased its aggression against the Philippines in the South China Sea, Chinese leader Xi Jinping visited Vietnam, where he signed multiple agreements.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is seeking warm ties with Vietnam in the wake of geopolitical challenges.
As Southeast Asian countries including Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar have joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Vietnam has remained hesitant, fearing that it could be seen as an endorsement of China’s expansionist and bullying conduct.
An Impending Crisis
Just before the Chinese leader’s visit to Vietnam, Chinese coast guard vessels intercepted, attacked, and rammed Philippine supply vessels in disputed waters in the South China Sea on Dec. 9 and 10. The Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines Romeo Brawner Jr. was on board the vessel that was rammed.A New Ally to Confront China
In recent years, various countries have warmed up to Vietnam in the face of China’s expansionist agenda. In September President Joe Biden visited Vietnam and upgraded the relationship between the two countries to a “comprehensive strategic partnership.” The United States and Vietnam have signed a number of deals, including on semiconductors and minerals.
In addition, South Korea, which has long been economically dependent on China, has shifted its focus to Vietnam in recent years. Since former South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who came to power in 2017, pushed for a “New Southern Policy” to strengthen cooperation with the ASEAN countries, Vietnam has become a major trading partner for South Korea.
South Korea-Vietnam trade has reached $87.7 billion in 2022. Vietnam has become South Korea’s third largest trading partner after China and the United States, and South Korean capital has become the top source of investment in Vietnam, reaching $81 billion by 2022, ahead of Singapore’s $70.8 billion.
In June, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol visited Vietnam with a business delegation and said that “close cooperation between South Korea and Vietnam is more important than ever” in the current international environment.
After Mr. Yoon’s visit to Vietnam, many in the South Korean media have suggested that South Korea should reduce its economic dependence on China by turning to Vietnam.
South Korea’s oldest daily newspaper Chosun Ilbo published an article pointing to Vietnam as a starting point for “de-Chinaization.” Another daily newspaper JoongAng Ilbo also said that “de-Chinaization” seems to be the trend to avoid the soaring labor costs in China and the competition between China and the United States.
Vietnam’s Turbulent Relationship With China
Mr. Shi pointed out that during the Cold War, China was able to establish a good relationship with the United States because of Vietnam, and Vietnam has always played an important role in U.S.-China relations and the CCP’s regional strategy.In 1961, during the Vietnam War, the Communist North Vietnamese marched south in an attempt to overthrow the South Vietnamese government, a U.S. ally, and to contain Communist expansion, President John F. Kennedy sent troops to support the South Vietnamese. From 1965, U.S. forces entered the war on a large scale. The North Vietnamese, with the support of the CCP and the former Soviet Union, adopted guerrilla warfare tactics, making it difficult for the U.S. military to be effective.
During President Richard Nixon’s administration in 1973, the United States signed the Paris Peace Accords with the North Vietnamese and then withdrew the American troops. The agreement was supposed to keep the status quo with a divided North and South Vietnam.
U.S.-China relations have been in a state of perpetual confrontation since the CCP usurped power. During the Cultural Revolution, CCP leader Mao Zedong warmed up to the United States, which led to Secretary of State Henry Kissinger visiting China in 1971 on behalf of President Nixon. China’s improved relations with the United States were due to a fallout with the Soviet Union.
“This is such a tacit understanding between the United States and China, and the strategic goal was to work together against the former Soviet Union,” said Mr. Shi. “This entire strategy contributed to the beginning of the ‘honeymoon period’ between the United States and China.”
However, the Communist North Vietnamese soon tore up the peace agreement with the United States and attacked South Vietnam, leading to the entire Vietnam falling to the Communists in 1975. The CCP was displeased with North Vietnam’s actions and began to cut trade and aid to Vietnam, which led to the deterioration of Vietnam’s economy and the relationship between the two countries.
The 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War was a breaking point for the total reversal of the CCP’s previous strategy,“ Mr. Shi said. ”Since now that China is once again an adversary of the United States, the CCP has gone back to Vietnam, so it can be said that Vietnam plays an important role in the CCP’s geopolitical strategy. All countries in the region are playing the ‘Vietnam card.’”
