Experts Warn US of CCP Duplicity as Trade Talks Continue

‘How are you going to expect a regime that’s conducting the largest-scale religious persecution to pave its own way to democracy?’ a China expert says.

Security guards stand behind a glass door during the 14th National People's Congress (NPC) in Beijing on March 6, 2024. Greg Baker/AFP via Getty Images

As President Donald Trump pursues a trade deal with China, experts are cautioning that the regime has a history of breaking promises and it can’t be trusted.

The core reasons for the duplicity of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) aren’t something that can be solved by skilled negotiation or statesmanship, they said, as they stem from the regime’s structure and ideology.

The CCP has been notorious for failing to honor major promises, said Bradley Thayer, co-author of “Embracing Communist China: America’s Greatest Strategic Failure” and member of the Committee on the Present Danger: China (CPDC).

“Lenin said, of course, that agreements were pie crusts for communists—they’re made to be broken,” he told The Epoch Times. “And I think we want to keep in mind Lenin’s aphorism when we’re thinking about the CCP.”

Off the top of his head, he listed several examples of the CCP breaking major promises and agreements.

The CCP never fulfilled its vow to liberalize access to China’s market upon its 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization, he noted.

The regime promised not to militarize the artificial islands it reclaimed in the South China Sea, yet it established military installations on them.

In 2020, Beijing enacted the Hong Kong National Security Law, which effectively nullified Hong Kong’s legal independence, despite the CCP’s promise upon acquiring the region from the UK in 1997 to keep its legal and political system intact for 50 years.

The CCP also failed to honor its 2020 trade agreement with the United States.

Promises of transparency after the regime’s 2003 SARS epidemic coverup went up in smoke with another coverup at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, he pointed out.

Several other China experts voiced a similar sentiment.

“Most Chinese people immediately know that China is not going to honor whatever they promise; we just know,” said Don Xiang, a China expert and host of the “Digging Into China” YouTube channel.

Undercover police arrest attendees during a memorial vigil in Hong Kong, on June 4, 2020. Thousands gathered for the annual memorial vigil in Victoria Park to mark the 1989 Tiananmen Square Massacre despite a police ban citing coronavirus social distancing restrictions. Billy H.C. Kwok/Getty Images

World leaders have repeatedly overlooked the CCP’s dishonesty in hopes that with economic progress, the regime will eventually reform itself. However, such expectations have always been unrealistic, the experts said.

“They’re thinking that making China richer, helping China become modernized, will actually change China’s political system—that has been proven to fail,” said Nan Su, a China commentator and senior editor of the Chinese-language edition of The Epoch Times.

The CCP’s brutal campaign launched in 1999 to eradicate the Falun Gong faith group, which had at least 70 million practitioners at the time, should have been a sufficient wake-up call, he said.

“How are you going to expect a regime that’s conducting the largest-scale religious persecution to pave its own way to democracy? Just impossible,” Nan said.

A bolt of lightning crosses the sky as people look at buildings displaying a light show on the eve of the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing on June 30, 2021. Noel Celis/AFP via Getty Images

CCP’s Supremacy

The CCP’s penchant for deception stems from its ideological core, according to Nan and other experts.

Following the catastrophic Cultural Revolution led by CCP founding leader Mao Zedong, the communist regime largely abandoned any lofty revolutionary ideals. Its current interpretation of communism is contradictory: on the one hand, it proclaims a pursuit of socialism, and on the other, it stipulates that a capitalist phase of undetermined length must first elapse. That led many Western observers to conclude that China was no longer a communist country.

Yet one part of the ideology has remained constant: the supremacy of the CCP. The concept has been incessantly reiterated in every major policy and is also the key defining feature of China’s Constitution. It isn’t a mere desire of a ruling clique to stay in power, but rather an absolute ideological dogma enforced to the point of irrationality, the experts said.

“Loyalty to the Party actually means you abandon your own identity, your own individual thinking,” said Sean Lin, member of the CPDC and former U.S. Army officer.

Thayer said that the absolute need to preserve the Party stems from its ideological roots in Marxism and Leninism.

“What they say is that Marx, Engels, Lenin gave them a ’scientific understanding of society,' of how history operates, about its driving force and about its teleological outcome, which is going to be the triumph of communism,” he said.

Bradley Thayer, director of China policy at the Center for Security Policy, in Washington on Nov. 21, 2023. Lei Chen/The Epoch Times

In this worldview, so long as communists preserve their rule, socialism inevitably comes.

“That allows them, in their own mind, to justify their crimes and their rule because they’re on the ‘right side of history’; they’re ‘advancing science.’”

It follows that no individual or group is allowed to garner enough influence to destabilize the Party, the experts said. Determining what constitutes a threat to the Party is not an objective standard, they noted. When Party authorities invoke preservation, it acts as a psychological short-circuit that overrides all other considerations.

“It’s a groupthink,” Xiang said.

Omnipresent Threat

The list of what the CCP considers a threat is long and ever-expanding, the experts pointed out.

The United States is the Chinese regime’s most prominent enemy, they concurred, but there are countless others.

Taiwan is a threat merely because it shows that Chinese people are capable of forming a functioning society without the CCP.

Religious faith is automatically an enemy because believers would place their ultimate loyalty beyond the CCP.

The existence of democracy alone is a threat, as it may spark a desire for alternatives to the CCP.

Any kind of negative information about the CCP is a threat, as it may give rise to opposition.

Schoolchildren walk below surveillance cameras in Akto, in China's western Xinjiang region, on June 4, 2019. Greg Baker/AFP via Getty Images

Mere disagreement with Party policy is enough of a threat. Under some circumstances, the Party allows internal debate, but that ends once the central authorities make a decision, Thayer said.

“The Party has ruled on that issue, and that doesn’t change. The Party is infallible. It doesn’t make mistakes,” he added.

Wealth, too, is a threat as it may lead individuals to think they don’t need the CCP, Xiang said.

Even people once welcomed and celebrated by Beijing can easily find themselves among its enemies, as private business owners in China have learned over the past decade, Nan pointed out.

Don Xiang, a China expert and host of the “Digging Into China.” Courtesy of Don Xiang

In fact, businesses in China are private in name only, with the Party always looking over their shoulder, Xiang said. But they do wield certain influence of their own, thus making them a threat in the CCP’s eyes.

Many people blame the current CCP leader, Xi Jinping, for undermining private businesses. But that process had already started under Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao, Nan said.

The CCP allowed private entrepreneurship only because the Cultural Revolution had pushed the country to the brink of economic collapse. The regime simply “needed the money,” Nan said.

However, as the private economy grew, it was inevitable that the CCP would eventually feel threatened by its influence, the experts said.

Falun Gong

The persecution of Falun Gong, also known as Falun Dafa, serves as a case in point of the capriciousness of the CCP’s obsession with threats to its rule, the experts said.

After its public introduction in 1992, Falun Gong, a spiritual discipline based on the principles of truthfulness, compassion, and tolerance, was seen by many Chinese as a safe belief system because it took the form of the then-popular qigong exercises and was at times endorsed by state-run media. In the late 1990s, when articles started to appear in the CCP media criticizing Falun Gong, it came as a shock to its practitioners, who were well aware that media denunciations had been historically the first canary in the coal mine for upcoming purges.

“In their understanding, once you’re criticized in the media, you’re dead,” Ian Johnson, former Wall Street Journal reporter, said in a February podcast interview. Johnson received a Pulitzer Prize for his reporting on the persecution of Falun Gong in 2001.

In his view, Falun Gong beliefs fit well with Chinese folk religions that are popular across China.

“There was really nothing in Falun Gong that was so unusual,” Johnson said.

A large group of Falun Gong adherents practice their discipline's exercises in Shenyang City, China, before the persecution of the practice began. Minghui.org

Falun Gong’s popularity—attracting at least 70 million followers by 1999, according to government surveys at the time—was perceived as a threat by then-CCP leader Jiang Zemin. Some media reported then that Jiang had a personal antipathy toward Falun Gong and wanted to crush it in order to whip the Party into line under his rule before the upcoming Party congress.

Although the Politburo Standing Committee, the CCP’s highest decision-making body, did not unanimously endorse the persecution, Jiang was able to push it through “in a desperate attempt to build up his own power,” according to the Falun Dafa Information Center.

“Jiang Zemin’s excuse at the time for starting the persecution is the argument that Falun Gong is trying to get people’s support away from the Party. Once this reason was given, everybody shut up,” said Heng He, a China commentator and Epoch Times contributor.

For Party members, once the CCP’s survival is at stake, no further discussion is possible, the experts said.

Some Falun Gong practitioners previously told The Epoch Times how jarring the change in the CCP’s treatment of the group was when the persecution started on July 20, 1999.

Some recalled that the state media’s tone toward Falun Gong switched from positive to negative virtually overnight.

The persecution campaign had devastating consequences for Falun Gong practitioners. Millions were locked up in prisons, labor camps, and even mental institutions, subjected to torture, according to human rights groups and UN reports.

But it also severely damaged society writ large, the experts said.

(Left) Two Chinese police officers arrest a Falun Gong practitioner on Tiananmen Square in Beijing on Jan. 10, 2000. (Right) Chinese police detain a Falun Gong practitioner on Tiananmen Square in Beijing, in this file photo. Chien-Min Chung/AP Photo, Minghui

For one thing, it stripped China’s legal system of any pretension of fairness.

“To villainize the whole judicial system, the police system, by just casually arresting innocent people, kind people, and then torturing people, killing people, this is bankrupting the society,” Lin said.

It also corrupted the medical profession as the regime soon started to use detained Falun Gong practitioners as a source of organs for transplants, killing them in the process.

“Any normal doctor, in a normal society, probably cannot imagine that you kill someone and take their organs and put them into another person’s body, right?” Lin pointed out.

Dr. Sean Lin speaks during a discussion hosted by The Committee on the Present Danger: China at the CPAC convention in National Harbor, Md., on Feb. 27, 2020. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

“Normal people won’t be able to do it, but the CCP can make a large team of medical doctors in China do this.”

Many people in China, even within the CCP, are aware of the problem, but cannot do anything about it, the experts said.

“Once the decision is made, it’s almost impossible to reverse the course,” Heng said.

In 2019, following an investigation, the independent China Tribunal concluded that Falun Gong practitioners made up a significant portion of the organ supply for the CCP’s forced organ harvesting program. The tribunal said forced organ harvesting had taken place “for years throughout China on a significant scale.”

Lack of Legitimacy

The experts said that for those familiar with the CCP’s history and tactics, it’s in its nature to always require an enemy to “struggle” against.

“You are not the government’s enemy, you are living your life, and then suddenly you are, and you are in prison. It can happen like that. And it happens to about 10 percent of the Chinese population at any point in time because they always have to repress part of their people,” Shelly Zhang, researcher and producer of “China Uncensored,” the largest China-focused YouTube channel critical of the CCP, said in a recent episode of “Let’s Talk About It.”

The extreme insecurity of the CCP stems from a lack of legitimacy, the experts said.

Traditionally, governments draw their legitimacy from a divine mandate. In modern times, the concept has been largely replaced by the popular will of the people, that is, elections. The CCP, however, rejects both, Thayer noted.

Initially, the CCP drew legitimacy from utopian promises. But the mirage of communist utopia has been thoroughly exhausted among the Chinese, crushed into apathy by the horrors of the Cultural Revolution. Since then, the Party has only been able to draw pseudo-legitimacy from promises of economic growth, Heng said.

But that’s not a sustainable way to justify governance, he said, adding that “no other country claims economic growth as a sole source of legitimacy.”

Xi Jinping tried to solve the issue by pushing grand nationalistic narratives, such as “The East is rising and the West is declining.” Still, the effect has been limited, according to Lin.

“I think in the Chinese Communist Party’s top echelons, most people don’t believe that the West is in decline and China is rising,“ Lin said. ”Probably only Xi Jinping himself truly believes it.”

Military delegates arrive for the opening session of the National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on March 5, 2025. Wang Zhao/AFP via Getty Images

With the Chinese economy in dire straits in recent years, the CCP again looks to foreign investors for a lifeline, but that would be a temporary measure as the regime still perceives the private economy as a threat, the experts suggested.

Ultimately, the only solution to the CCP’s lack of legitimacy is the elimination of all other alternatives, Thayer said. Its ideology is circular—it must rule because it must rule, the experts said.

“That’s exactly their mindset. The CCP must rule. That’s it. Everything they do is that. They don’t care about the welfare of Chinese people or developing the economy,” Xiang said.

“Of course, they may develop the economy, but if the development of the economy is counter to the CCP’s rule, they will not hesitate to destroy the economy.”

Reform Is Impossible

In a regular dictatorship, the ruler and his clique can change their ideology if it suits their interests. The CCP system, however, doesn’t allow for such a transition, the experts explained.

The reason for this ideological rigidity is multifaceted, they said.

Firstly, every Chinese person is indoctrinated from birth that “there would be no China without the CCP,” as one of the most notorious CCP propaganda slogans goes. The concepts of nation, prosperity, stability, and even survival are synonymous with the Party.

Secondly, within the CCP, the first and foremost requirement for promotion is loyalty to the Party. Before one reaches any position of meaningful power, one’s attitude toward the Party would have been repeatedly scrutinized, Nan explained.

“When you finally get to the top, that leader always puts the Communist Party’s leadership as the top priority,” he said.

The strict Party discipline enforcement further reinforces adherence to this prime directive. CCP officials are well aware that once an issue is proclaimed a matter of the regime’s stability, any dissent could become grounds for being purged, several experts said.

“It’s kind of embedded in Chinese people’s minds,” Xiang said.

Thirdly, CCP officials are the primary beneficiaries of the Party’s rule. Their vested interests are tied to their official position. A threat to the Party thus means a threat to them personally.

Students salute as a national flag is raised at an elementary school in Beijing on Sept. 1, 2021. Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

“If you’re in the inner Party, despite the tensions and difficulties and ruthlessness that would exist in the inner Party, you’re also getting a pretty big share. And so you’re going along with it,” Thayer said.

When foreign leaders and diplomats negotiate with China, they always find that some officials in the Party’s top echelons are “easy to talk to,” Nan said, giving the example of former Premiers Wen Jiabao and Zhu Rongji.

“Those people you always find have some common sense,” he said.

These officials, however, are never in charge of making major decisions on the regime’s direction. Rather, they are selected by the Party to handle day-to-day operations and policy implementation. Even if the policy is destructive or irrational, they will still try to find a way to put it into practice, he said.

Lastly, the CCP is organized in a way that doesn’t allow for substantial reform.

Its structure is derived from the Soviet military organization, in which a military officer at each level had a political commissar assigned to him. In each case, it was the commissar wielding the real power. Similarly, at each level of the Chinese regime, from a village head to the premier, the corresponding Party official would always have a higher rank.

“The final decision maker is always the Party secretary of that level,” Nan said.

Because the Party structure runs parallel to the government structure, its only purpose is ideological compliance. If China were to truly abandon communism, there would be no practical purpose for the Party, and it would collapse on itself, Heng said.