Former Premier’s Sudden Death Adds to CCP Leadership Turbulence: Analysts

China's President Xi Jinping (R) and former Premier Li Keqiang arrive for the closing session of the National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on March 13, 2023. (NOEL CELIS/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

The sudden death of China’s former premier could aggravate the potential turmoil within the upper echelons of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) leadership, researchers and analysts say.

Li Keqiang, once China’s No. 2, suffered a “sudden heart attack” on Oct. 26, while he was visiting Shanghai, according to an obituary published by the official news agency Xinhua. After “all rescue measures failed,” he died early on Oct. 27. He was 68.

Mr. Li’s death followed several mysterious disappearances and replacements of the regime’s senior officials, adding to speculation about political infighting within the Party’s ruling elites, according to analysts.

A Premier Sidelined By Xi

The timing of the former premier’s death was “abnormal,” said Wu Zuolai, a Chinese history scholar and political commentator living in California, noting that many are likely to link the death to the political struggle within the CCP’s top leadership.

The former Chinese premier was merely 68 years old, which was “relatively young” compared to the age of other influential Party figures, Mr. Wu told The Epoch Times. Mr. Li’s predecessor, Wen Jiabao, is 81 years old, while Zhu Rongji, another former premier, is 95.

That’s why Mr. Li’s sudden death leaves “a lot of room for speculation,” he said.

Mr. Li’s passing came just seven months after he retired from the position that he had held for a decade.

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While the premier is normally in charge of the country’s economy, Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s strengthening of the Party’s grip over the country weakened the premier’s influence on economic and financial policy. In recent years, Mr. Li was overshadowed by Liu He, a former right-hand man to Mr. Xi and director of the Party’s financial policymaking commission.

Analysts say Mr. Li disagreed with Mr. Xi’s ideas to enhance the Party’s control in all walks of life. Since 2021, the regime has launched a series of regulatory crackdowns on private sectors, ranging from tutoring to technology. As a key member of the Communist Youth League, a political faction known to support market liberalization, Mr. Li advocated for reform policies that were introduced by Deng Xiaoping in 1979.

Those differences mean that Mr. Li’s rise would inevitably be regarded as a threat to Mr. Xi’s power, according to Song Guo-cheng, a researcher at National Chengchi University’s Institute of International Relations in Taiwan.

“One mountain cannot contain two tigers,” Mr. Song told The Epoch Times, referring to an ancient Chinese idiom.

At the premier’s annual press conference in 2020, Mr. Li revealed that about 600 million Chinese earned less than 1,000 yuan ($140) per month, which meant that they might not be able to afford rent in a medium-sized city.

The statement, which came after Mr. Xi vowed to eradicate poverty by the end of that year, was “a challenge to Xi Jinping’s authority,” Mr. Song said.

China's President Xi Jinping (R) watches as former president Hu Jintao (C) touches the shoulder of Premier Li Keqiang (2nd L) as he leaves the closing ceremony of the 20th Chinese Communist Party's Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on October 22, 2022. (NOEL CELIS/AFP via Getty Images)

While Mr. Li might not have agreed with Mr. Xi or his policies, he didn’t take any “effective action” against the Party lead, Feng Chongyi, a China Study professor at the University of Technology Sydney, told The Epoch Times.

Most of his rhetorical expressions advocated for Mr. Xi’s rule.

“He was still calling to unite around the Party Central Committee headed by Xi Jinping,” Mr. Feng said.

Sensitive Political Moment

Mr. Li’s death recalled the death of Hu Yaobang, a liberal reformist who died following a heart attack in 1989, two years after being forced to resign from the CCP’s top post. His death sparked an explosion of public anger that developed into the country’s largest pro-democracy student protests.

Unlike the 1980s, the CCP has built up a surveillance state, with its people under constant surveillance by millions of CCTV cameras equipped with real-time facial recognition technology. That might make it impossible for a large-scale gathering to memorize Mr. Li to occur, according to Mr. Song.

However, the public grief may fuel the distrust of Mr. Xi, he added.

Student displays a banner with one of the slogans chanted by the crowd of some 200,000 pouring into Tiananmen Square in Beijing, on April 22, 1989, in an attempt to participate in the funeral ceremony of former Chinese Communist Party leader and liberal reformer Hu Yaobang during an unauthorized demonstration to mourn his death.  (Catherine Henriette/AFP via Getty Images)

Mr. Li rarely appeared on state media since stepping down as premier during the annual political conference in March, when Mr. Xi was awarded an unprecedented third five-year term as China’s top leader.

His last public appearance occurred on Aug. 30, with a visit to the Mogao Caves in the northwestern city of Dunhuang. Mr. Li appeared to be in good health, greeting the public with a wide smile, according to photos and footage on social media.

Hu Ping, editor-in-chief of the pro-democracy magazine Beijing Spring, said it’s unclear what caused Mr. Li’s fatal heart attack. He said that growing distrust of the regime could lead to “big events” at some point in the future.

Mr. Li’s death comes as the world’s second-largest economy is faltering. The real estate sector, which had fueled nearly one-third of China’s economy, is on the edge of collapse, threatening the savings of millions of middle-class families at a time when youth unemployment is at a record high.

The economic trouble is occurring about a year after Mr. Xi became the regime’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong after stacking the Party’s top decision-making body with his trusted allies last October.

Meanwhile, in recent months, Mr. Xi has fired several senior officials without explanation, ranging from handpicked ministers to top commanders overseeing China’s nuclear arsenal. As speculation swirled about leaks of military secrets, China’s state media published the obituary of former Rocket Force commander Wu Guohua, who died in July due to “medical issues.”

However, the statement was taken down shortly after it went viral on China’s social media.

The list of mysterious deaths of high-profile Party elites has continued to grow since Mr. Xi took office, said Su Tzu-yun, a senior analyst at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a government-funded think tank in Taiwan.

The deaths may indicate that the political turbulence within the CCP persists, he said.

Flowers are seen left in front of the former house of former Chinese premier Li Keqiang in Chuzhou, in China's eastern Anhui province, on Oct. 27, 2023. (Rebecca Bailey/AFP via Getty Images)

Chinese commentator Wang He says the current political situation is “more delicate” than that in 1989.

Mr. Xi is “in great conflict” with those in the Party’s upper echelons, Mr. Wang told The Epoch Times, suggesting opposition figures may use Mr. Li’s death to oppose his leadership.

Even though most of the opposition is silent—choosing not to publicly challenge Mr. Xi—they may not buy the official explanation of the former premier’s death, Mr. Wang said. Some are likely to conclude that Mr. Li died in “an assassination,” while others may link his death to constant frustration with Mr. Xi.

“From a political perspective, Mr. Xi’s position hangs by a thread.”

Luo Ya and Yi Ru contributed to this report.