China’s rubber-stamp Congress is scheduled to hold its annual plenary sessions, known as the Two Sessions, in early March in Beijing. The regime’s work report, which is expected to focus on economic issues, is to be delivered by the state’s premier.
The Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and the National People’s Congress (NPC) constitute the two “houses” of China’s rubber-stamp congress. The CPPCC and NPC are often viewed as political formalities, given the regime’s firm grip on power.
The Two Sessions will convene on March 4 and 5 in Beijing, where delegates appointed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) from various provinces of China will gather for meetings.
Future of China’s Economy
During the Two Sessions, all eyes will be on the delivery of the work report by the state premier, Li Qiang, with particular interest in how the regime will determine the economic growth target.Some observers believe China’s economic growth target for 2024 may continue to be set at around 5%, consistent with 2023.
At the national level, the investment growth target set by most provinces for 2024 is lower than that of 2023, and heavily influenced by efforts to prevent and resolve local debt risks.
China’s stock market is also facing a downturn, and despite repeated market rescue policies by the Chinese regime since the beginning of this year, significant improvements have yet to be seen.
China’s New Chief Diplomat
This year’s Two Sessions will also place a special focus on new personnel appointments. Following the dismissals of former Minister of Foreign Affairs Qin Gang and former Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu in 2023, observers will be closely watching whether the Two Sessions will fill the vacancies left by these two officials.Since Mr. Qin was relieved of his foreign minister position, the role has been temporarily assumed by Wang Yi, director of the CCP’s Central Committee Foreign Affairs Commission Office. There has been speculation for some time that Liu Jianchao, currently serving as the head of the International Department of the CCP, may become the new foreign minister.
On Feb. 27, the Standing Committee of the NPC held its final meeting before the Two Sessions. A subsequent announcement stated that Mr. Qin “resigned” as a “delegate” of the NPC.
According to the announcement, a total of 4 people, including Mr. Qin, resigned from their positions as NPC delegates, while 7 others were dismissed from their positions, totaling 11 NPC delegates whose appointed positions were terminated.
Mr. Qin disappeared from public view in late June 2023. He was relieved of his position as foreign minister in late July, becoming the shortest-serving foreign minister in the history of the CCP. In late October, he was also dismissed from his position as a state councilor. The reasons for his dismissal have been widely speculated upon, with rumors even circulating about his death. However, the regime has yet to provide an explanation.
Dong Jun, who was appointed to replace Li Shangfu as minister of national defense at the end of 2023, is still awaiting confirmation of his state councilor status.
Defense Budget
The CCP is also expected to announce this year’s defense budget during the Two Sessions.Since 2000, China has maintained its defense budget at approximately 2 percent of the country’s GDP. However, in pursuit of the so-called “2035 comprehensive military modernization goals,” there has been a notable increase in defense expenditure in recent years, with an annual growth rate exceeding 7 percent. Currently, China’s military spending is the second highest in the world, trailing only the United States.
Provocations Against Taiwan
The Two Sessions will also likely provide insights into the CCP’s Taiwan strategy.Chinese leader Xi Jinping discussed cross-strait relations during the Two Sessions in 2015, 2016, and 2019. Following the presidential elections in Taiwan at the beginning of 2024, observers are keenly watching to see whether Xi will comment on Taiwan-related issues this year.
Wang Yang, chairman of the National Committee of the CPPCC responsible for Taiwan affairs, will participate in discussions with the NPC’s so-called “Taiwan delegation,” which is not elected by the people of Taiwan.
The regime’s annual work report also mentions Taiwan. During the press conference with domestic and foreign journalists before the end of the Two Sessions, there will typically be one or two questions related to Taiwan.
In January, Wang Yi, China’s acting foreign minister, stated after the Taiwan election that Taiwanese independence would be “harshly punished” by law. It remains unclear what actions the CCP intends to take that could be considered punishment by law.
Delaying Retirement Age
The CCP may also announce a delay in the retirement age for Chinese people during the Two Sessions.In recent years, the topic of delaying retirement has been prominent during the Two Sessions, with issues such as retirement age thresholds and the implementation of gradual retirement plans being of significant public concern.
As the 2024 Two Sessions event approaches, the topic will once again become a focal point. However, unlike previous years, policies in the current year seem to have already taken shape.
Chinese state media have cited a recent report from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, stating that a delay in the retirement age is imminent and that 65 may become the new retirement age for Chinese people.
Currently, the statutory retirement age in China is 60 for all men, 55 for white-collar women, and 50 for blue-collar women.
In recent years, the CCP has consistently signaled the need to delay the retirement age due to China’s aging population and shrinking workforce. However, each proposal has been met with a backlash and criticism from the Chinese public.
