China, US Could Go to Nuclear War Over Chinese Invasion of Taiwan, War Game Finds

‘Nuclear weapons were used when one side thought it was facing catastrophic defeat,’ said Mark Cancian, the report’s coauthor.

Members of a Taiwanese military band and people wearing hats in the colors of Taiwan's national flag take part in National Day celebrations in front of Taiwan's Presidential Office in Taipei on Oct. 10, 2012. Mandy Cheng/AFP/Getty Images

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan could potentially escalate into a nuclear war between China and the United States, with hundreds of millions in casualties, according to a war game conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and a war gaming lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

The tabletop exercise simulated an amphibious invasion of Taiwan by China’s communist regime in the year 2028, according to the CSIS–MIT report released on Dec. 13. The simulation, which played through 15 iterations, started with conventional weapons but U.S. and China teams could decide to use nuclear weapons.