China Could Seize Taiwan Offshore Islands Within 6 Months: Report

The move would test the United States’ resolve to respond effectively to such a crisis, and the faith of its defense allies, report says.

Taiwanese armored vehicles roll down a street in Kinmen Islands, Taiwan, on May 24, 2024. I-Hwa Cheng/AFP via Getty Images

China could seize control of Taiwan’s offshore Kinmen Islands within the next six months, believing that the United States would not take a forceful response to its aggression, according to a new report.

Researchers from the Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute warned that Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping may believe that he has a “unique opportunity” over the coming months to carry out a short-of-war coercion campaign against the Kinmen Islands, given the political landscape in both Taiwan and the United States.

“In the United States, President Joe Biden is in his lame-duck period after announcing his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race. The U.S. domestic political landscape is turbulent and divisive amid the ongoing election, the foreign policy establishment is preoccupied with ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and the U.S. populace has little appetite for more war,” the researchers wrote in their report that was made public on Aug. 21.

“Xi may believe these factors will preclude a timely and forceful U.S. response to his Kinmen campaign before the inauguration of a new U.S. president in January 2025.”

The report’s publication comes amid heightened tension between China and Taiwan, following the January election of Lai Ching-te who was sworn in as Taiwan’s president in May.

Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration said its patrol vessels expelled 835 Chinese boats from Taiwan-controlled waters from January to June 25, prompting the island’s defense minister, Wellington Woo, to warn that China was trying to establish a new norm around Kinmen’s waters.

In July, tension across the Taiwan Strait intensified after Chinese coast guard vessels boarded and seized a Taiwan fishing ship that was in Chinese waters about 17.5 nautical miles from the Taiwan-controlled waters of the Kinmen Islands.

As for Taiwan’s current political dynamics, the researchers said the Lai administration “is still relatively inexperienced” and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DDP) has to deal with “frequent political battles” with the opposition coalition of the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), which it says are “trying to hinder the DPP’s agenda” of stopping authoritarian expansion.

As a result, the researchers argue that neither the United States nor Taiwan are likely to respond “in an effective or escalatory way,” should China decide to move against the Kinmen Islands.

Quarantine

Kinmen Islands is located about three miles from the Chinese mainland and about 124 miles from Taiwan. Given Kinmen’s “close proximity” to China, it is “very hard for Taiwan to defend” the islands, the report said.

To seize Kinmen, the report said that China could make its first move “three to four months” from now, after the Chinese Coast Guard “normalizes incursions into Kinmen’s restricted and prohibited waters until such incursions occur nearly daily.”

Next, China would start attempts to board and detain Taiwanese ships in waters that China “does not undisputedly control” and would begin to fly “ostensibly civilian surveillance drones directly over Kinemen’s military bases,” according to the report.

The researchers said the Chinese Coast Guard would either orchestrate or take advantage of an “unfortunate incident,” and use the event “to set up a ‘quarantine’ zone around Kinmen and prevent the delivery of any additional weapons or ‘contraband’ to the islands.”

“The quarantine still allows most civilian ships to pass after an inspection but blocks the passage of most ROC government vessels,” the researchers wrote, referring to Taiwan’s official name, the Republic of China.

To further isolate the Kinmen Islands, China would subsequently impose a no-fly zone over the area and damage the island’s submarine cables connected to Taiwan, according to the report.

The researchers predicted that the Taiwanese government would eventually concede, agreeing to turn the Kinmen Islands into a “demilitarized zone” (DMZ).

“The PRC eventually establishes its own outposts and government liaison offices in Kinmen with the justification of overseeing the demilitarization and keeping the peace. It may operate these institutions jointly with Kinmen’s civilian authorities,” the researchers wrote, referring to China’s official name, the People’s Republic of China.

Ultimately, China would turn Kinmen into “an exemplar of the ‘One Country, Two Systems’ scheme it wishes to impose on Taiwan,” according to the report.

“The CCP will use its media and information warfare to promote narratives of Kinmen’s freedom and economic prosperity, thus increasing the appeal of such a model for Taiwan’s other outlying islands and eventually Taiwan itself,” the researchers wrote.

China imposed the “one country, two systems” political system on Hong Kong after the former British colony was handed back to China in 1997. Xi suggested that Taiwan could be united with the mainland under the same political system in a January 2019 speech.

Most Taiwanese oppose the idea of living under the CCP’s political system for mainland China. According to a recent poll by Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, a government agency in charge of handling cross-strait affairs, 85 percent of respondents either “disagree” or “strongly disagree” with the CCP’s proposition.

Potential Consequences

The researchers noted that the sequence of actions that China would take to seize Kinmen “is a best-case scenario” and there are certainly risks that could derail China’s plan. For example, if there is an “unwanted conflict escalation,” Taiwan’s allies could interpret China’s quarantine measure “as an act of war that justifies a forced response.”

“The benefits of seizing Kinmen are less about the strategic value of Kinmen itself than about the psychological effect such an operation would have,” the researchers wrote.

The psychological effects included a loss of morale within the Taiwanese military and a loss of confidence in Taiwan about the United States and other friendly countries coming to the island’s aid in the event of a Chinese military attack, according to the report.

Additionally, the Lai administration may be confronted with a new political crisis, the researchers added, while the opposition parties may be able to push Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan towards having greater diplomatic and economic engagement with China and reducing its reliance on the United States.

“The operation [against Kinmen] would therefore increase the chances that Taiwan capitulate in a future conflict,” the researchers warned.

On Aug. 23, Lai made his first trip to Kinmen since taking office in May to mark the 66th anniversary of the 823 Artillery Bombardment, an event that led to the Second Taiwan Crisis in 1958.

“Our goal is that we hope for peaceful development across the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan is a peace-loving country and Taiwanese people are kind to others,” Lai said in a speech during his trip. “We’re also unwilling to be ruled by the [Chinese] Communist Party. We want to continue a life of democracy, freedom, human rights, and rule of law.”

The report suggested many preemptive measures, including having the Taiwanese government develop a merchant maritime force and establish a larger Coast Guard presence around Kinmen.

If China carries out its quarantine against Kinmen, one recommended action that the United States and its allies can coordinate is to have their warships transit the Taiwan Strait, according to the report. A second recommendation is to jointly impose financial sanctions and trade restrictions against China.

To prevent the likelihood of any future aggression by the CCP against Taiwan’s offshore islands, including the Kinmen Islands and Matsu Islands, the U.S. Congress should also pass an amendment to the Taiwan Relations Act to help these islands “resist coercion from the CCP.”

The Taiwan Relations Act is a law that authorizes the United States to provide the island with military equipment for self-defense. The law was signed after Washington ended its diplomatic ties with Taipei in favor of Beijing in 1979.

“The United States’ failure to effectively respond to such a crisis would have cascading negative effects on the faith of U.S. allies like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines in the U.S. defensive umbrella,” the researchers wrote. “Maintaining Taiwanese sovereignty over these islands is thus a precarious but vital task.”