The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has made its most direct threat to Australia, warning of consequences if Australia supported Taiwan’s newly elected president, Lai Ching-te (William Lai), and his ruling Democratic Progressive Party.
In a statement, the Chinese Ambassador to Australia Xiao Qian cautioned that “If Australia is tied to the chariot of Taiwan separatist forces, the Australian people would be pushed over the edge of an abyss.”
Beijing had previously labeled Mr. Lai, the former vice president, as a “dangerous separatist” before the Jan. 13 election. On the eve of the vote, the Chinese defense ministry vowed to “crush” any move towards independence for the island.
‘Cherish Democracy,’ New Taiwan President Advises
Mr. Lai did nothing to assuage those concerns, portraying himself during the campaign as the defender of Taiwan’s democratic way of life.“Please go out and vote to show the vitality of Taiwan’s democracy”, he told the assembled media before casting his ballot. “This is Taiwan’s hard-won democracy. We should all cherish our democracy and vote enthusiastically.”
He won comfortably with more than 40 percent of the vote from the 14 million who cast a ballot.
Tensions in the region are constant, with the CCP claiming Taiwan as part of its territory, and has not ruled out using force to seize the island one day.
The island is separated from the mainland by a 180-kilometre (110-mile) strait.
Absorption of Taiwan Inevitable, Says Xi
CCP leader Xi Jinping said in a recent New Year’s address that the “unification” of Taiwan and China was “inevitable.”A message of congratulations to Mr. Lai from U.S. President Joe Biden elicited a similar reaction from Beijing, saying it “sends a gravely wrong signal to the ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces.”
“We strongly deplore and firmly oppose this, and have made serious representations to the US side”, a CCP spokesperson said.
They added that Washington’s statement “seriously violates the one-China principle” as well as the United States’ pledge to maintain only unofficial ties with Taiwan.
A visit by a U.S. delegation on Jan. 15 is likely to anger Beijing further, reminiscent of a visit by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in 2022 that triggered China’s biggest-ever military exercises around the island, involving warships, missiles, and fighter jets.
Possibility of An Accidental Conflict
There is now speculation as to whether Beijing will increase its aggression toward Taiwan, which already comprises a near-daily presence of Chinese warplanes and naval vessels around it.Geopolitical strategists worry about an accidental conflict, particularly after Beijing cut off communications with President Tsai Ing-wen’s administration.
While China is an important trading partner for Australia, so is Taiwan, which was Australia’s seventh largest two-way merchandise trading partner in 2021/22, with trade worth $32.6 billion.
It was also Australia’s fifth-largest merchandise export market that year, worth $23.1 billion (US$15.4 billion).
Two-way services trade totalled $811 million, with Australia exporting $468 million to Taiwan and importing $343 million of services.
That puts Canberra in a difficult position. While the Biden administration has unequivocally stated that the U.S. would come to Taiwan’s defence in the event of a direct conflict with China, Australia has been much more ambiguous on that question, saying it will not engage in speculation.
It could be that the Cabinet has not reached a consensus on the issue.
Canberra’s Stance May Have to Change
Some observers, however, believe that—even under the less aggressive Albanese government—Australia will not be able to continue to avoid taking sides on the issue, particularly now that it is a member of AUKUS.Meanwhile, the newly elected Taiwanese government is not set on a path of appeasement, immediately issuing a statement on Jan. 14 telling Beijing to accept the election outcome.
“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs calls on the Beijing authorities to respect the election results, face reality, and give up suppressing Taiwan for positive cross-strait interactions to return to the right track”, it said.
Equally, the CCP stands firm. Although Mr. Lai is on record as opposing formal independence, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi felt it necessary to point out that the election did not change Taiwan’s status.
“If anyone on the island of Taiwan thinks of going for independence, they will be ... trying to split China, and will certainly be harshly punished by both history and the law,” Mr. Wang said at a press conference in Cairo.
“Taiwan has never been a country. It wasn’t in the past, and it certainly won’t be in the future”, he said.
