Two days before Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s birthday, he made two big moves. Analysts believe that these moves were also meant to increase his leverage as he seeks a third term at the upcoming 20th Party Congress.
In communist countries, top leaders’ birthdays are important dates for the entire nation. Xi was born on June 15, 1953.
On June 13, Xi reportedly signed an “Outline for Chinese Army’s Non-War Military Actions.” On the same day, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs suddenly changed its rhetoric and publicly claimed sovereignty over the Taiwan Strait, triggering an immediate response from the White House, which accused the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) of undermining the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait.
The Outline, details of which are hidden from the public, was officially implemented on June 15, Xi’s birthday. Chinese state media claimed that it is aimed at safeguarding national sovereignty and security, and provides a legal basis for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to “conduct non-war military operations.”
Also on June 15, Xi had a phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, reiterating that the two leaders would continue to deepen Sino-Russian relations and expressing mutual support for each other’s main agendas.
‘Non-War’ or ‘Other Than War’ Military Operations
Based on the wording of the Outline, analysts believe that the CCP’s possible military action against Taiwan could be carried out in an “other than war” scenario.“Considering that Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine under the name of ’special military operation,' Xi Jinping may attack Taiwan in the name of anti-terrorism and anti-crime,” Yaita Akio, the director of Sankei Shimbun’s Taipei branch, said in his Facebook post on June 14. “If it is not an act of war, it can evade the relevant provisions of international law, and also may evade certain economic sanctions.”
China-Russia Summit Talks Pledge to Continue ‘Mutual Support’
Although China and Russia have made different remarks about the phone conversation between Xi and Putin, the two sides expressed support for each other in the Russia-Ukraine war and the CCP’s strategy toward Taiwan.“China is willing to continue our mutual support with Russia on issues concerning core interests and major concerns such as sovereignty and security,” Xi said during the call, according to a June 15 press release by the state-run Xinhua News Agency.
The Russian side stated that Xi “recognizes the legitimacy of Russia’s actions to safeguard the country’s fundamental interests in the face of security challenges created by external forces.”