ANALYSIS: Beijing Seems to Be Quietly Changing Its Pro-Russia Stance

ANALYSIS: Beijing Seems to Be Quietly Changing Its Pro-Russia Stance
A handout picture made available by the Iranian Army official website on January, 21 2022 shows an navy-man firing atop a warship during a joint military drill in the Indian ocean. - Iran, Russia and China will began today joint naval drills for three days in the Indian Ocean, seeking to reinforce "common security", an Iranian naval official said. (Photo by Iranian Army office / AFP) (Photo by -/Iranian Army office/AFP via Getty Images)
Shawn Lin
8/9/2023
Updated:
8/9/2023
0:00

At recent Ukrainian peace talks in Saudi Arabia, Beijing not only sent over delegates, but also appears to have been changing its pro-Russia stance. Moreover, domestically, Chinese authorities have handled public opinion on China-Russia relations very differently from before.

On Aug. 5, senior officials from 42 countries around the world, including the United States, China, India, and Ukraine, met in the Saudi Arabian port city of Jeddah for international talks aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine war.

The meeting was part of Ukraine’s diplomatic efforts to gain support beyond its Western backers by reaching out to developing countries that have been reluctant to take sides in the conflict.

There was no joint statement after the Jeddah meeting, but, according to a European Union official, the countries agreed that “respect for territorial integrity and (the) sovereignty of Ukraine needs to be at the heart of any peace settlement.”

The participants also agreed to hold another meeting within about six weeks, according to a senior Ukrainian official who addressed reporters at a briefing in Kyiv.

The Jeddah meeting followed preliminary talks in Copenhagen in June that China had rejected to attend, despite being invited. Therefore, China’s presence in Jeddah was seen by some as a highlight of the peace talks this time around.

A Sign that CCP Plans to ‘Change Course’

Commenting on the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) change of stance, current affairs commentator Dakang said in his Youtube program on Aug. 6 that if the CCP agrees to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, it means that Russian-occupied Crimea and the other four states no longer belong to Russia, and this is tantamount to the CCP withdrawing its support for Russia.

“It is an issue related to basic principles. So this is a major sign that the CCP wants to change course,” he said.

The CCP has never condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine since the war broke out in February last year, and has maintained close economic and diplomatic ties with Russia. Foreign Minister Wang Yi even said that Sino-Russian strategic cooperation “has no end, no forbidden zone, and no upper limit.”

Domestic Propaganda Also Changed

Prior to the peace talks, the CCP’s two unusual practices in connection with China-Russia relations also attracted attention.

On Aug. 4, in an extremely rare move, the CCP’s embassy in Russia criticized Russian border officials for their “brutal law enforcement,” in a post on its official WeChat account.

It turned out that five Chinese citizens who attempted to enter Russia by car from a port in Kazakhstan on July 29 had their travel visas canceled and were denied entry into the country. The Chinese embassy learned from a video uploaded by these five Chinese nationals that Russian border guards had repeatedly searched and interrogated them for four hours.

According to the post, officials from the Chinese Embassy met with the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the General Directorate of the Federal Border Guard, and the General Directorate of the Federal Security Service. They criticized the Russian border officials’ “barbaric and excessive law enforcement,” pointing out that the incident was not in line with the current friendly Sino-Russian relations.

They also demanded that the Russian side immediately take measures to eliminate the negative impact and guarantee that similar incidents will not occur in the future.

The incident was a big hit on China’s Weibo, and made headlines on several Chinese media. One netizen commented on Weibo: “This is the first time in many years that I’ve seen an [official] complaint against the Russians. What does this imply?”

Just a couple of weeks earlier, on July 20, the Chinese consulate in Odessa, Ukraine, was damaged in a Russian missile and drone attack, but Chinese authorities didn’t say a word of protest.

The CCP’s internet police also allowed Chinese netizens to criticize Russia’s advocacy of China-Russia-Belarus cooperation, without deleting their remarks for being “harmful” as they have done before.

On Aug. 1, the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti published a post in Chinese on its official Weibo account titled, “Russian expert: strengthening the Beijing-Moscow-Minsk axis is extremely beneficial for Russia.”

It quoted Russian experts as saying that a free trade agreement on services and investment between China and Belarus will not only increase trade volume between the two countries, but will also greatly contribute to the growth in trade between Russia and Belarus.

Soon after the post was published, comments below the article were overwhelmingly condemnatory. One of the most popular comments read, “So you want to drag us into this muddy water? You think you’re Mussolini?”

Apparently, the use of the word “axis” in the post offended Chinese netizens, as the term is often associated with “evil” and often refers to fascist allies in World War II. Several netizens left a comment denouncing the term “axis,” and some even called on the Chinese Foreign Ministry to intervene to redress the issue.

Amid this outpouring of criticism, RIA Novosti made a re-edit the next day, replacing the word “axis” with “cooperation.”

Throughout the process, the notorious Chinese Internet police did not delete any comments critical of the RIA post, and these rebukes remain on Weibo to this day.

Mr. Dakang said in his program that there are indeed some interesting changes going on in China with regard to its relations with Russia, and that Xi Jinping may indeed officially change course very soon. But he believes it’s already too late.

“The outcome of the war is already very obvious, it’s only a matter of time. It wouldn’t be of much benefit if [the CCP] changes its stance at this time,” he said.

“The West has already formulated its overall strategy—to deal with Russia first, and then deal with the CCP afterwards. There is no chance to bring about any major change. Also, if you want to change course, will Russia easily let you go?”