China ‘Not Likely’ to Invade Taiwan in Fall: Top Taiwan Intelligence Officer

Taiwanese domestically built Indigenous Defense Fighters (IDF) take part in the live-fire, anti-landing Han Kuang military exercise, which simulates an enemy invasion, in Taichung, Taiwan on July 16, 2020. (Reuters/Ann Wang)

According to a March 24 legislative briefing by Taiwan’s National Security Bureau (NSB) Director-General Chen Ming-tong, China is unlikely to invade Taiwan in the fall of 2022.

In the big picture, the prospect of China’s invading Taiwan in the fall is “not likely,” Chen told lawmakers.

Director Chen cited several reasons for his judgment, including the upcoming 20th Congress, the Ukraine war, China’s COVID resurgence, and China’s economic challenges.

Beijing has been studying the Ukraine War, and seeing that “Russia originally planned to take down Kyiv in four days but now have stepped into a quagmire,” it likely would be more cautious with making military moves, Chen said.

“Plus, COVID-19 is resurging in China, and China’s economy has declined,” he said. “The communist regime’s focus is on ’maintaining stability' before the 20th Party Congress.”

The CCP “has never ruled out taking over Taiwan by force, but it’s the political timing that’s in question,” he said, adding that “within President Tsai Ying-wen’s term of office, [Taiwan’s security] has no concerns.”

Chen said that Beijing would not adopt measures that would “put a timetable” on itself, such as the recently much-deliberated “unification law” that would give Beijing perceived grounds—accompanied by perceived obligation—for an invasion.

“In the past, during the Deng Xiaoping era, they tried to set a timetable, but in the end thought it best not to, as it would put pressure on them,” Chen said, referring to the leader of the Chinese Communist Party from 1978 to 1989.

On the other side of the coin, he said, “Beijing is thinking more about the legitimacy of launching a war, and how it should prepare to launch a war. Therefore, if Beijing makes a move, the move will be comprehensive.”

He said Taiwan should have an “integrated evaluation of the enemy” and improve self-defense mechanisms such as “critical base infrastructure, military capacities and psychological preparedness” with an attitude of “wary caution.”

In the Thursday hearing, lawmakers raised a particular concern: whether “external forces” were behind mass electricity outages in Taiwan in March. Director Chen responded that “initial assessment revealed the incidents to be isolated.”

However, he said Taiwan’s critical infrastructure should not be this fragile, which deserves the attention of the Taiwanese government.