Robinson Cano may be the greatest-hitting second baseman of all time. Let’s be clear on that right off the bat.
Great-hitting second basemen are hard to find—very hard. Even harder to find are two-way second basemen—the kind that can hit and field. The 31-year-old Cano, who has won four straight Silver Slugger awards and two of the last four Gold Gloves, and his new agent Jay Z know this and are out to take advantage.
So on the surface, it wouldn’t appear that Cano’s asking price—reported to be in the neighborhood of $300 million—isn’t completely out of whack.
But he’s not going to get $300 million. Not in this market. In fact, he’s not going to get $200 million either.
Why not? A number of factors.
1. First, There Are Cano’s Own Limitations
For all his greatness, leadership doesn’t seem to be natural for him. If it were, he’d be running out all ground balls, fly balls, pop flies, you name it.
Even more so is his recent history in the playoffs. Anyone remember the 2012 postseason? I’m sure Cano would rather those memories be erased. The star second baseman hit .091 in five games against Baltimore and then topped that performance by hitting .056 in four games against the Tigers.
That’s not to say all his playoffs have been disasters, as the 2011 Tigers and 2010 Rangers can attest to. But his latest performance is still on the minds of many.
2. The Recent History of Big Contracts Is Ugly
If anyone knows bad contracts, it’s the organization Cano is trying to get another one out of: the Yankees. Just look at the A-Rod fiasco. Six years ago the Yankees signed A-Rod—fresh off his third MVP—to a massive 10-year, $275 million contract.
What’s happened since? A lot of money has been pocketed by Rodriguez while the Yankees await their return on investment. Only it’s not coming. He’s now 38, coming off his worst year ever (granted he was injured) and still has four years and roughly $100 million remaining. Ouch.
Let’s look at some other big deals. Take Albert Pujols. The Angels signed Pujols two years ago, as a 31-year-old, to a 10-year, $240 million contract. But the three-time MVP hit just .258 with 17 home runs in 99 games this past season—his worst one ever—and he still is signed for eight more years.
How about Prince Fielder? Fielder signed with Detroit two years ago for nine years, $214 million, though he was much younger than Cano—just 27—at the time. Again his numbers have declined as his slugging percentage of .457 and his 25 home runs this past season were both career-lows, despite playing every game. He was recently traded in a semi-salary dump to Texas, which puts the Rangers likely out of the Cano sweepstakes—at least at $300 million.
3. Few Big-Market Suitors Are Left
Maybe the biggest problem for Jay Z and Cano is Dustin Pedroia. That’s right, because the Red Sox (always a great way to drive up Yankee prices) already have a great second baseman of their own they are useless for leverage and out of the sweepstakes.
While Jay Z and Cano reportedly had a secret meeting with the Mets brass about Cano going to the National League, there’s no way the Mets are a serious contender at $300 million—or $200 million. Remember this is the same franchise that two years ago let Jose Reyes sign with the Marlins for $106 million (another contract gone bad) without as much as an offer.
How about the Angels? After lavishing $240 million on Pujols two years ago, the team then gave Josh Hamilton better than $120 million over five years last offseason and you know the rest. Hamilton, now 32, hit a career-worst .250 with 21 home runs in 156 games as the Angels finished with a losing record.
Even if the team hadn’t learned its lesson about giving big contracts to players past their 30th birthdays, could they afford Cano while Pujols and Hamilton hog nearly $50 million in payroll next season? Not likely.
So what big spenders are left? You have the Yankees and the Dodgers—maybe the Dodgers. There’ve been virtually no rumors out of Los Angeles that the spend-happy Dodgers will ante up to get Cano. But the Dodgers are the x-factor here. Remember this is an ownership group that in 2012 spent $2.15 billion for a franchise—nearly triple the Cubs sale price of $845 million three years earlier—so theoretically anything is possible.
Until that comes to fruition though, the Yankees should stick to their guns and keep the offer in the $150–$175 million range—right where it should be. No need to negotiate against yourself.
Friends Read Free