The recent visit to South Korea by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin during the Quad “2+2” Security Dialogue brought up the issue of the North Korean nuclear threat. Whether the new U.S. administration will return to the game manipulated by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) more than four years ago, or completely abandon the CCP and face North Korea alone will involve the United States’ overall strategy against the CCP in deciding how to effectively resolve the North Korea nuclear crisis.
This is pretty much saying that the new administration has no effective strategies specifically for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, just like there are no strategies to stop the coercion of the CCP. North Korea’s behavior demonstrated their recognition of this fact.
A few hours before the “2+2” dialogue, on March 18 Choe Son Hui, Pyongyang’s first vice minister of foreign affairs, released a statement saying that North Korea received multiple emails and phone calls from the Biden administration in February. She described it as a “cheap trick.”
On March 16, Kim Yo Jong, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, warned in a statement, “If [the United States] wants to sleep in peace for the coming four years, it had better refrain from causing a stink at its first step.”
This warning came after White House press secretary Jen Psaki said that the administration had reached out to North Korea through “a number of channels, as we always have had, that we can reach out through. But, to date, we have not received any response.”
Although Kim Jong Un did not congratulate Biden on taking office, North Korea can first observe the attitude of the new administration and can also communicate with the United States. Improving relations with the United States is North Korea’s greatest diplomatic aspiration. The United States extended an olive branch, but North Korea rejected it and even deliberately found fault. Logically, it was obviously unreasonable. The shadow of the CCP apparently appeared again.
The CCP had to work so hard to finally resume communication with the United States in Alaska. What else does North Korea have to worry about? Trump once gave Kim Jong Un the opportunity to meet directly, and North Korea also showed that it was unwilling to be a pawn of the CCP. This was considered a major breakthrough in diplomacy. North Korea has since restrained itself. Trump kept the CCP out of the loop and resolved the North Korean issue alone. Trump cracked the dual force between China and North Korea, and also vigorously counterattacked the CCP and decoupled from the CCP regime. Seeing this, North Korea was wise not to stand out along with the CCP, and consequently, the nuclear crisis from North Korea significantly cooled down.
Beware the Consequences of the Old Path
Although Biden defined the CCP as the “most serious competitor,” he stopped Trump’s decoupling process from the CCP regime and continued to reverse Trump’s past tactics. For the time being, North Korea could not see the steps taken by the new U.S. government to forcefully counter the CCP. When North Korea sees that the United States is again resorting to the CCP for the North Korea issue, the chances of North Korea directly cooperating with the United States become slim. Consequently, everything returns to the old path, and North Korea will have to get closer to the CCP.The U.S. government has made it clear that it does not intend to decouple from the CCP on the North Korean issue. In other words, the United States will allow the CCP to manipulate North Korea, which pushes North Korea to the CCP’s side. Seeing that the possibility of cooperating with the United States alone has gone, North Korea will only get close to the CCP again, and display a tough stand against the United States along with the CCP.
South Korea was hoping that the Biden administration would continue Trump’s effective strategy. South Korea knows that North Korea cannot be truly friendly to South Korea. South Korea’s investment and assistance to North Korea can only make North Korean people appreciate South Korea. The huge gap between North Korea and South Korea will also break the propaganda lies of the Kim family. Kim Jong Un will not in any way be friendly with South Korea. This is the root cause of the hot and cold relations between North Korea and South Korea for many years. When Kim Jong Un was short on food, he pretended to cooperate, but immediately turned about-face after gaining benefits; the South Korean government can only continue to provide relief to North Korea in order to reduce the risk of war. After all, they cannot watch their compatriots continue to suffer from starvation.
Of course, South Korea knows that the CCP is behind the scenes, but the risk of war is too real. If North Korea was to bomb densely populated cities such as Seoul, there would be many casualties of innocent people. At the same time, South Korea cannot let go of the Chinese market easily. If the United States can abandon the CCP, communicate directly with North Korea, and solve the problem alone, South Korea will naturally appreciate it. This should be the greatest opportunity for peace on the Korean Peninsula.
Even Stronger Anti-Communist Actions Necessary
In both meetings with Japan and South Korea, the CCP’s was condemned for its “aggressive and authoritarian“ behavior, with Blinken inviting the U.S. allies to a “joint commitment to security.” But Blinken also emphasized that the CCP can play a role in persuading North Korea to denuclearize with its “tremendous influence,” which is the equivalent of letting a hooligan discipline a younger hooligan. The CCP gangsters are preparing to instigate North Korean gangsters to make trouble in exchange for bargaining chips with the United States, but the United States took the initiative of giving the bargaining chips to the CCP.Similar policies toward North Korea by former President Barack Obama team proved ineffective. Therefore Trump changed strategy and completely ignored the CCP, a tactic that was effective. Now that the North Korean issue has returned to Biden’s hands, he seems to be continuing his old routine of cooperation with the CCP. It is bound to fall into the double trap of China and North Korea.
If the United States intends to unite its allies against the Chinese communist regime, it needs to show more powerful moves. Allies are looking up to the United States. If the United States cooperates with the CCP on the North Korean issue, what can South Korea and Japan do?
The United States needs to put aside the CCP, face North Korea alone, and relieve North Korea from the control of the CCP. Only then can the North Korean nuclear crisis be resolved. Of course, the United States still needs to take a two-pronged approach. Fight back against the Chinese communist regime so that its allies are more willing to cooperate with the United States, and North Korea is more likely to stay out of the control of the CCP and lean on the United States more.
If the United States can truly destroy the Chinese communist regime, not only will it completely eliminate the greatest security threat, but the North Korean issue will also be resolved, and the evils of the hooligan and his younger counterpart will disappear.
Whether the United States is willing to crack the dual forces of China and North Korea should also be a key step in the Indo-Pacific strategy.
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