What Worries Investors the Most (Tariffs) Can Turn Around Fast

The stock market is a manic crowd. A crowd does not think, it merely reacts. We now have a grossly oversold stock market.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York City on March 7, 2025. Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Commentary

The bad news is that the stock market seems to think that the U.S. is following Britain, France, Germany and Mexico by slipping into a recession. Some pundits are highlighting these recession risks: J.P. Morgan said that the U.S. economy is at risk of plunging into an “air pocket.” Furthermore, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model now projects the U.S. economy may contract at a 2.4% annual pace in the first quarter.