US Retail Sales Show June Rebound as Consumers Shrug Off Tariffs

‘Consumers seem to be over the tariff shock in April,’ one expert said.

Shoppers at a store in New York City on March 21, 2025. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

Consumers’ appetite for shopping rebounded in June following a pullback in the previous month.

Retail sales surged at a higher than expected pace of 0.6 percent in June, according to Commerce Department data released on July 17. This follows a 0.9 percent decline in May and a tepid 0.1 percent gain in April.

The consensus estimate suggested a 0.1 percent rise.

Retail sales also climbed by 3.9 percent year over year, surpassing the market forecast of 3.6 percent.

Excluding cars and auto parts, retail sales jumped by 0.5 percent.

“Consumers seem to be over the tariff shock in April and are back at it with spending,” Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.

While the headline figures suggest that consumers shrugged off tariff-related anxiety, one expert said tariff fears may have bolstered June’s consumption trends.

“If anything, tariff fears seem to be accelerating sales, at least in the near term,” Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate, said in a statement to The Epoch Times.

“There is, of course, a lot of uncertainty regarding tariffs and the path forward. But a strong June was about more than just a tariff pull-forward. The consumer is generally in good shape.”

Despite the Trump administration’s levies and economic uncertainty, Commerce Department data revealed broad-based strength across the U.S. marketplace.

Transactions at car dealers and auto parts vendors surged by 1.2 percent. Apparel sales advanced by 0.9 percent, while restaurant sales rose by 0.6 percent. Sales at online retailers also increased by 0.4 percent.

In addition, a key metric used to calculate gross domestic product exceeded economists’ expectations.

The retail sales control group—excluding auto dealers, building materials stores, food services, and gasoline stations—rose by 0.5 percent from a downwardly revised 0.2 percent in May.

Looking ahead, July could see a blockbuster retail sales report.

This month, scores of retailers launched various sales events, led by Amazon’s Prime Day event. Experts say consumers took advantage of the discounts.

According to Adobe Digital Insights, online spending across all retailers totaled $24.1 billion during the four-day Prime Day event, up by more than 30 percent from a year ago.

“This is more than two Black Fridays—which drove $10.8 billion in online spend during the 2024 holiday shopping season—and sets a new benchmark for the summer shopping season,” the Adobe report stated.

People shop at a retail store in New York City on March 21, 2025. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

In July 2024, retail sales increased by 1.2 percent.

Back to School

Market watchers will turn their attention to the busy back-to-school shopping season, and industry experts say households have already started purchasing backpacks and pencils.

New data from the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics reveal that 67 percent of back-to-school shoppers have already begun buying items for the upcoming school year. This is up from 55 percent last year.

Half of the early-bird shoppers are doing so out of concern that tariffs will raise prices, according to Katherine Cullen, vice president of industry and consumer insights at the National Retail Federation.

“Consumers are being mindful of the potential impacts of tariffs and inflation on back-to-school items, and have turned to early shopping, discount stores, and summer sales for savings on school essentials,” Cullen said in a statement.

Families with K–12 students plan to spend an average of $858.07 on apparel, electronics, and school supplies this year, which is slightly lower than last year’s average of $874.68, according to the National Retail Federation.

Overall, according to a recent 2025 back-to-school retail survey by Deloitte, collective spending is expected to reach nearly $31 billion.

Consumer Prices

The latest retail sales data come as economists digest three key reports to determine if President Donald Trump’s global tariffs are resurrecting inflation threats.

The consumer price index for June reported that the annual inflation rate surged to 2.7 percent from 2.4 percent in May. Core inflation, which omits the volatile energy and food components, also ticked up to 2.9 percent. On a monthly basis, inflation and core inflation rose by 0.3 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively.

Last month’s producer price index—a pipeline inflation gauge of prices paid for goods and services by businesses—was unchanged at zero percent, and eased to 2.3 percent year over year.

Import prices, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, rose by 0.1 percent following a 0.4 percent decline in May. Export prices jumped by 0.5 percent in June after a 0.6 percent slide in the previous month.

While these numbers are unlikely to persuade the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates later in July—investors overwhelmingly expected a rate cut in September—they are positive for the financial markets.

“After May’s slump, a 0.6 [percent] jump in retail sales shows that the American shopper is alive and well—and that matters for markets. Strong retail sales are like oxygen for the economy, and Wall Street is breathing a sigh of relief today,” Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group, said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.

U.S. stocks were in the green following the flurry of economic data, with the leading benchmark averages up by about 0.3 percent.