Edmunds, a Santa Monica, California-based online car shopping guide, is forecasting a significant drop in new vehicle sales by the end of the first quarter. Its March 26 report predicts sales of 3,693,599 new cars and trucks nationally by the end of the month, marking a 6.3 percent decline from the first quarter of 2025 and an 8.8 percent decline from the fourth quarter.
“Q1 marked a bumpy start for new-car sales in 2026,” Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ head of insights, said in the report.
“Between severe weather, geopolitical uncertainty, rising gas prices and ongoing affordability challenges, it’s no surprise sales are down year-over-year.”
But despite the drop, Caldwell said “sales are far from falling off a cliff.”
Edmunds analysts predict a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.9 million in car sales for March, which is closely in line with the company’s expectations of 16 million for the full year.
Caldwell said that the first-quarter new car sales represent a “K-shaped market,” where higher-income shoppers continue to buy, while more price-conscious buyers remain hesitant.
“New car buyers tend to be more affluent, which helps cushion the impact of higher gas prices,” she said.
“But shoppers looking for lower-priced vehicles are feeling the squeeze the most, especially given how limited those options are in today’s new-vehicle market.”
Edmunds director of insights Ivan Drury agrees that gas prices can be volatile.
“Trading in a less fuel-efficient vehicle during a surge can actually put you at a disadvantage, as values for those vehicles soften while demand for more efficient models drives prices up,” he noted in the report.
The report estimates that General Motors will have the highest sales volume at the end of the first quarter, at 625,739. It represents a 9.8 percent decline from the first quarter of 2025, and an 11 percent drop from the fourth quarter.
Nissan is expected to sell 242,027 vehicles by the end of the month, 13 percent higher than in the fourth quarter of 2025. However, that volume represents a 9.4 percent decline from the first quarter of 2025.
The only other automaker forecast to see an increase in sales from the fourth quarter of 2025 is Honda, with a predicted 1.5 percent uptick. Its expected sales of 337,604 at the end of March would be a 4 percent decrease from the first quarter of 2025.
In terms of market share, General Motors is expected to rank first at the end of the month with a 16.9 percent share, a 3.7 percent decline from the first quarter of 2025 and a 2.4 percent decline from the fourth quarter.
While Honda and Nissan ranked lower in market share, at 9.9 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively, both automakers are expected to make significant gains from the fourth quarter of 2025. Nissan’s share is forecast to grow by 23.8 percent, and Honda’s by 11.3 percent.
Atlanta, Georgia-based Cox Automotive issued its March 26 report, indicating new vehicle sales will keep up the pace in March, despite the uncertainty of a Middle East war. The global automotive services and technology giant forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.8 million.
While March’s sales pace is expected to be lower by about 12 percent year over year, Cox reports that March 2025 saw elevated sales of 17.9 million—a four-year high. The report contends that today’s market is being affected by affordability challenges and economic uncertainty.
March sales are forecast at 1.37 million units, down by 14.2 percent from a year earlier but up by 14.3 percent from February.
“Sales are no longer swinging wildly month to month, but growth is also harder to come by,” Cox Automotive senior economist Charlie Chesbrough said in the report.
“Affordability remains the central challenge for the industry, and that is limiting the market’s ability to expand beyond the mid-15-million range.”
Compact sports utility vehicles are expected to generate the most sales at 235,000 by the end of the month—a 19.1 percent year-over-year decline. Sales of mid-sized cars could see the lowest level at 65,000—a 15 percent year-over-year drop.
Matching the Edmunds report, General Motors is expected to reap the lion’s share of sales by the end of March, followed by Toyota, Ford, Hyundai, and Honda. All are forecast to see year-over-year declines in sales. Only Mercedes, listed second last before BMW, could see a year-over-year rise of 16.1 percent in sales.
