US New Vehicle Sales Forecast to Fall 8.8 Percent Sequentially in 1st Quarter

Year over year, sales are forecast to drop 6.3 percent in the quarter, according to Edmund.

Vehicles sit on the sales lot at a GM dealership in Lincolnwood, Ill., on June 20, 2024. Scott Olson/Getty Images

Edmunds, a Santa Monica, California-based online car shopping guide, is forecasting a significant drop in new vehicle sales by the end of the first quarter. Its March 26 report predicts sales of 3,693,599 new cars and trucks nationally by the end of the month, marking a 6.3 percent decline from the first quarter of 2025 and an 8.8 percent decline from the fourth quarter.

“Q1 marked a bumpy start for new-car sales in 2026,” Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ head of insights, said in the report.