US Economy Did Better Than Expected in the Fourth Quarter, but Current GDP Estimates Crash

New revised GDP data show better-than-expected economic growth in fourth quarter 2023, but real-time GDP estimates for first quarter 2024 dropped sharply.

The U.S. Department of Commerce building is seen in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 31, 2022. Peter Silverman Photo/Shutterstock

U.S. economic growth for the fourth quarter of 2023 has been revised upward, to 3.4 percent from 3.2 percent in the government’s third—and final—update of gross domestic product (GDP) figures, although real-time GDP estimates for the first quarter of 2024 have fallen sharply, undercutting hopes for an economic “soft landing.”

The economy expanded by 3.4 percent in the October–December period in 2023, up from the second estimate of 3.2 percent, according to a March 28 statement from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).