US Consumer Confidence Holds Steady as Job Market Shows Signs of Firming

The gain reflected stronger views of job availability and modestly improved perceptions of business conditions.

People walk through the Financial District near the New York Stock Exchange in New York City, on March 19, 2025. Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Americans grew more upbeat about current economic and job conditions in October, even as long-term expectations remained subdued, according to new data from The Conference Board that point to steady economic momentum heading into year-end.

The organization’s consumer confidence index edged down slightly to 94.6 in October from a revised 95.6 in September, the Oct. 28 report shows. But the present situation index, which measures consumers’ assessment of business and labor market conditions, rose by 1.8 points to 129.3, the first rebound since summer.

The gain reflected stronger views of job availability and modestly improved perceptions of business conditions.

“Consumer confidence moved sideways in October, only declining slightly from its upwardly revised September level,” Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at The Conference Board, said in a statement.

“Consumers’ view of current business conditions inched upward, while their appraisal of current job availability improved for the first time since December 2024.”

Signs of Labor Market Firming

The data come as new private payroll figures suggest employment growth may be stabilizing after several months of contraction.

Private-sector employment increased by an average of 14,250 jobs per week over the four weeks ending Oct. 11, according to a new weekly dataset released on Oct. 28 by payroll processor ADP. That translates to about 57,000 jobs added during the period, reversing declines seen in August and September.

“ADP’s near real-time employment data, released weekly, will now provide an even clearer picture of the labor market at this critical time for the economy,” Nela Richardson, the firm’s chief economist, said in a statement.

The new weekly data series from ADP will complement the group’s monthly National Employment Report, which is typically released on the Wednesday before the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its non-farm payrolls report, the government’s closely-watched monthly job creation dataset.

The new job creation figures align with S&P Global’s flash U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which rose to 54.8 in October—its strongest reading since July—suggesting that the economy grew at a 2.5 percent annualized rate that month. Employment rose for the tenth time in the past 11 months, even as job gains in manufacturing slowed, as companies cited continued hiring challenges.

“Although input costs continued to rise sharply again in October, principally reflecting the pass-through of tariffs, average selling price inflation has cooled to the lowest since April,” Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement.

He noted that prices charged for both goods and services rose in October at their slowest pace in six months, suggesting reduced pressure on consumer inflation.

The Conference Board report also signaled muted inflationary pressures, with the organization’s 12-month inflation expectations index edging up only slightly to 5.9 percent in October from 5.8 percent in September.

Meanwhile, the group’s forward-looking expectations index, which reflects views on income, business, and labor conditions six months ahead, fell 2.9 points to 71.5—below the threshold that typically signals recession risk.

Still, optimism about family finances and stock prices remained strong, with nearly half of consumers expecting equities to rise over the next year.

“Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future job availability and future business conditions, while optimism about future income retreated slightly,” Guichard said in a statement.

Markets Expect Rate Cut

The Conference Board report comes as markets overwhelmingly expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a quarter point on Oct. 29, bringing the benchmark lending rate to 3.75-4.00 percent, lowering borrowing costs and preventing further slowing in the labor market.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told a conference on Oct. 14 that the job market was stuck in a low-hiring, low-firing mode, though he said the overall economy “may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected.”

“You do have a bit of tension between labor market data—we see very low levels of job creation—and yet people are spending,” Powell said in remarks to a National Association for Business Economics conference in Philadelphia.

“We are going to have to see how that plays out.”