IMF Warns Return to Prewar Trade Conditions Unlikely as World Bank, IEA Flag Energy Disruptions

The World Bank says that energy prices are expected to climb 24 percent in 2026 amid the Iran war.

A foreign tanker carrying Iraqi fuel oil damaged after catching fire in Iraq's territorial waters, following unidentified attacks that targeted two foreign tankers, according to Iraqi port officials, near Basra, Iraq, on March 12, 2026. Mohammed Aty/Reuters

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said a return to pre-war global transport conditions will be difficult, while the World Bank and International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the Middle East conflict is pushing up energy prices and disrupting global supply.

The IMF said on April 29 that disruptions in the Red Sea, particularly around the Suez Canal route, offer a possible preview of how longer-term instability in the Strait of Hormuz could affect global trade.