IEA Predicts World Oil and Gas Demand Will Grow Until 2050

During the Biden administration, the IEA predicted that global oil demand would peak this decade.

An oil platform off the coast of Huntington Beach, Calif., on Jan. 29, 2023. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

Global oil and gas demand is set to grow until 2050, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in its World Energy Outlook 2025 report, released on Nov. 12.

Under the Current Policies Scenario, which takes into account existing energy-related policies and regulations, demand for oil is expected to jump to 113 million barrels per day by mid-century, according to the report.

This is a nearly 9 percent increase from the 103.75 million barrels per day of oil demand in 2024, according to data from Statista.

The jump in oil demand by 2050 is “mainly due to its increased use in emerging market and developing economies for road transport, petrochemical feedstocks, and aviation,” the report states.

Global demand for natural gas is predicted to rise to 5,600 billion cubic meters by 2050. This will be up by 33 percent compared to the roughly 4,200 billion cubic meters of gas demand estimated for last year by the IEA.

Natural gas demand in the Middle East is expected to rise “strongly.”

“[However,] developing economies in Asia are the largest source of demand growth, and their rising supply needs are met by new pipelines from Russia to China and by increased flows of liquefied natural gas,” the report reads.

The forecast marks a change from previous predictions made by the IEA.

The Current Policies Scenario was first used by the IEA in 2019. The agency later switched the scenario to one more in line with a clean energy transition.

During the Biden administration, the IEA predicted that global oil demand would peak this decade and stated that there should be an end to investment in new oil, gas, and coal projects if the world wanted to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century.

In its World Energy Outlook 2024 report, the IEA had stated that coal, oil, and natural gas would reach their peak in the global energy mix by 2030 and then begin to decline, with clean energy poised for “huge growth.”

This prediction was not based on the Current Policies Scenario but rather on the Stated Policies Scenario, which considers policies that have not yet been implemented.

IEA chief Fatih Birol said in a press call that the Current Policies Scenario was restored to reflect differing choices governments are making about energy.

The IEA has been under pressure from the United States, under the Trump administration, over its focus on clean energy policies in recent years. The IEA is funded by member countries, with the United States being the largest contributor.

The United States is expected to remain the largest oil and gas producer in the world through the mid-century.

In its Nov. 12 Short-Term Energy Outlook report, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast global oil output to grow faster than demand for petroleum fuels, thereby pushing up global oil inventories through 2026.

As such, the EIA expects crude oil prices to fall through the end of 2025.

“EIA slightly revised its forecast for U.S. oil production upward in 2025 and 2026, reflecting higher-than-expected U.S. crude oil production,” the report reads.

“EIA expects domestic oil production to average 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026, up from its previous forecast of 13.5 million barrels per day in both years.”

As for natural gas, Henry Hub spot prices are forecast to rise to an average of $3.90 per million British thermal units this winter season. Next year, prices are predicted to average 16 percent higher than in 2025.

The Trump administration has been introducing policies aimed at boosting U.S. energy development.

For instance, on Nov.7, the Department of the Interior announced steps to expand offshore oil and gas leasing, in line with President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

The agency unveiled plans for the first lease sale in the Gulf of America region and proposed a lease auction in Alaska’s Cook Inlet.

According to EIA data, America’s oil output hit a new high of 13.79 million barrels per day in August, up from 11.31 million in August 2021, the first year of the Biden administration.

Reuters contributed to this report.