Some businesses surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York still plan to raise prices to recover costs from tariffs, suggesting that some tariff-related price pressures have yet to reach consumers.
Among firms that directly paid tariffs over the past year, roughly 30 percent of service firms plan to raise prices within the next six months, as do nearly 40 percent of manufacturers, according to an analysis published Wednesday by New York Fed economists.
Another 16 percent of service firms and 7 percent of manufacturers expect to increase prices more than six months from now, according to the analysis.
At the same time, about 30 percent of service providers and 20 percent of manufacturers told researchers they had already fully passed their tariff costs on to customers, meaning no further adjustments were needed.
Another 20 percent of service firms and 30 percent of manufacturers said they did not plan to raise prices further to recover tariffs they had paid.
The surveys cover businesses within the New York Fed’s district, which includes New York State, northern New Jersey, southwestern Connecticut, along with Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The researchers did not interpret the findings as evidence of a broader national trend.
The researchers also asked businesses why some price increases were being pushed so far into the future.
Some firms said they operate under long-term contracts with fixed selling prices and therefore cannot raise prices until those agreements expire. In the meantime, they must absorb the higher costs themselves.
Others described what the economists called a “trickle up” strategy, gradually increasing prices rather than imposing a large adjustment all at once. The approach allows companies to avoid shocking customers with sharp increases while retaining the option to raise prices more quickly if their costs continue to climb.
“It is not clear whether firms are responding to a single round of tariffs or to the sequence of increases that has unfolded over the past year or more,” the economists wrote. “What is clear is that the adjustment has been gradual.”
The findings shed some light on the effects of tariffs imposed under the Trump administration.
On Feb. 20, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, does not authorize the president to impose tariffs. The ruling paved the way for a massive effort to return duties that had already been collected from importers.
In April, U.S. Customs and Border Protection began rolling out a phased tariff refund process. The refunds are expected to total approximately $166 billion, an amount equal to roughly 63 percent of all customs-duty receipts collected in 2025.
