A Predictable ‘Back and Fill’ Followed the First-Week Honeymoon

We are now entering the seasonally strongest time of year, as late November and Thanksgiving week launch the happiest time of the year.

Visitors are seen in front of a screen showing the images of Jensen Huang (R), CEO of Nvidia, and Charles Liang, founder and president of the Supermicro, at Computex 2023 in Taipei, Taiwan, on May 30, 2023. Sam Yeh/AFP via Getty Images

Commentary

The S&P 500 and other indexes shot up by more than 5 percent in reaction to the resounding election victory by former President Donald Trump, but then stocks proceeded to lose about half of those gains as of Nov. 15’s close. There is no doubt that an early “January effect” began on Nov. 6, with many stocks melting up. As usual, however, stocks need to “back and fill” to digest their gains, but we are now entering the seasonally strongest time of year, as late November and Thanksgiving week launch the happiest time of year, when consumers are most upbeat.