So ends the most bitter and polarizing experience of British electoral democracy. The economics of Brexit was heatedly and endlessly debated in the U.K.’s referendum campaign on EU membership, but ultimately it was trumped by voters’ considerations about national integrity and identity. A majority of 17.4 million people voted to leave, against 16.1 million for remain.
How the Drama Unfolded
Assiduous watchers of the early referendum results had been advised that if the outcome in Sunderland (perennially among the first to declare election results) showed anything more than a six-point winning margin for Leave, then Brexit would be the likely outcome nationally. Anything less, however, and Remain could expect overall victory.
In the event, Sunderland produced a remarkable 22-point margin in favor of Leave (61-39), while nearby Newcastle, which had been expected to produce a comfortable margin for Remain, only narrowly favored the pro-EU choice (51 percent to 49 percent). The value of sterling fell off a cliff as the currency markets reacted to these early shocks, but the Remain side’s nerves were briefly steadied a little by better than predicted results in Swindon and Lewisham.
But the bad news for Remain continued to pile up, as a pattern of polarization emerged, with Leave areas proving even more hostile to the EU than had been expected, especially in the north, eastern England and Wales, and Remain areas being more supportive, at least in parts of London.
At 72 percent, turnout was extraordinarily high by the standards of recent general elections, but especially in the pro-Leave areas. Appalling weather on the day may have depressed turnout in London, while the other major pro-Leave zone, Scotland, saw a lower than average turnout as well—67 percent. By 2 a.m., quantitative forecasters were giving Remain a negligible chance of winning, and predicting 56 percent for Leave, while the bookies now made the Brexit side favorites to win.
